July 26, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Not Chopped Liver | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gold Hawk | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Prince Cheval | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Laflowmylaxbro | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hourly | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Demand Ransom | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fort Dixie | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Windy City Girl | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stay Anchored | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mountain Momma | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Drinks On Me | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jukebox Money | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon Drop Twist | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Snallygaster | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Andrew the Giant | 1.40 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Perfect Joe | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Richiesonarampage | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Itsprettystormy | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Diamond Monarch | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Red Prince | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Prudent Hero | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Luvin Bullies | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Aiken to Be | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Parol | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Addae Do Jaguarete (BRZ) | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fort Marsh | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Darling Sofia | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bizzee Mischief | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Wake Up Joe | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Candyrock | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Cast Iron | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | What’s Up Dude | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Romeo O Romeo | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Above the Bar | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Blue Wings | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Love Your Buttons | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Saidtomyself | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Matthew’s Thunder | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Rosa Star | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Appealing Audrey | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Ella | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Jilly | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fiery Blake | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Samis Car | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Foo Foo Girl | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vasilisa | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Senorita Tapit | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Word of Truth | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Marvelous Sky | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bar Ryder | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Northern Trail | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Last Spring | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Just Blaze | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Smokin M’konahay | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Run Your Race | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lt Dan Attack | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Justenufftuff | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Chas Tom | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Purr’s Along | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hide the Evidence | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Ready to Fight | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Zimmerman | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Landing Gear | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | King of the Score | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kielbasa | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Poddubny | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Estragon | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Slope | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Broadway Brett | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.