July 21, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 7 | Forge | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Helooksthepart | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2A | 2 | J S Bach | 1.60 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Full Salute | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bolita Boyz | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Always a Suspect | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Knights Key | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Casa Creed | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Rhythmia | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Seanow | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Johny’s Bobby | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sir Winston | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Digital Footprint | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Noble Spirit | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Macho | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Southern Bridge | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cairo Cat | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | One Mission | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | High Sheriff | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Colonel Sharp | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Wonderful Light | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Awesome Slew | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rally Cry | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Behavioral Bias | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | No Dozing | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Glory Stars | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Plans to Prosper | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shamrock Babe | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gentle Ruler | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Agreeable | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Windjammer (GER) | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | War Cabinet | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Beau Belle | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tapin Through Life | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Shanghai Glory | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Shape Shifter | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Our Girl Abby | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Miss Katie Bug | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Aggregator | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Karen’s Gem | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tee Up | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Simona | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mercurian | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Coast | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Nitrous | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Most Mischief | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Binary | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fed Fever | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Southern Phantom | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Market King | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cromwell Avenue | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | The Big S | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Puttheglassdown | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Majestic Hero | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Secret Passage | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Call Provision | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rocketry | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hello Don Julio | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Silverwave (FR) | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Patterson Cross | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Memories of Peter | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Small Bear | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Danyelli | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Sandy Belle | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Conquest Tizfire | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | First Appeal | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Really Proud | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Beautiful Street | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Battle Joined | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | La Naturel (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chipolina | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Romantic Babe | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Emerald Quality | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Sanford S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Dream Maker | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sombeyay | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Strike Silver | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bano Solo | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lexitonian | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Whiskey Echo | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chase Greatness | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Knicks Go | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Diana S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sistercharlie (IRE) | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Proctor’s Ledge | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | A Raving Beauty (GER) | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hawksmoor (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | New Money Honey | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ultra Brat | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | War Canoe | 50.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Doyouknowsomething | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Team Colors | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tweet Kitten | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Monster Bea | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hieroglyphics | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thatcher Street | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Marengo Road | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Souperfast | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Jess I Am | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | War Stroll | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Expected Ruler | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.