July 19, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Camalus | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Saturdays Hangover | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Musket Hunter | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cupboard | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cheadle | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | The Shoe | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Naples Lady | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dancin in a Storm | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mockery | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Meeka | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | J. A. Curlin | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hippie Gem | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lillet | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Richie’slilwildcat | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Pocket of Candy | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Girl’s Night | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Heavens Whisper | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cheery Oats | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Checotah | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mongolian Holiday | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Prima Storm | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Do Not Enter | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Full Heart | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Timingiseverything | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Offlee Fun | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Kantastic | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Moon Over Cabo | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ava Atticus | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Smokin Hot Momma | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Arch Away | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Good Wishes | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mistletoe Miss | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Konza Khrome | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hellofaguy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Bango Box | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Volgograd | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Jericho | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Danny B | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Orcus | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Campioni | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Cairn | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Good Intent | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Kara’s Angel | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Voluptuous | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sacred Canyon | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tinderella | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Straight Up Smarty | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sing One Song | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wildwood Scat | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brewmistress | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chica Bonita | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Lielielie | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Making a Marc | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Valycove | 1.80 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hero of the Hour | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zipzaptime | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Thunder Down Under | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Solo Drink | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Broth | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Attain Success | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maligator | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Drayke’s Channel | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Crown Regent | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cloud to Ground | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Here Comes Kyle | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.