July 13, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Brother Cesare | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Spanish Coyote | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Parrkaveli | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Richiesonarampage | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Diamond Dave | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Prudent Hero | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flag Bearer | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bold Esther | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Exotica | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lady Atlantic | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crafty’s Dream | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Madison’s Quarters | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Locash | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | American Biz | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Patch’s Lugh | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Prima Valentina | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pleasant Moon | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ready to Forgive | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Castlewood Terrace | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Courtyard | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Best You Ever Seen | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Air Balloon | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pleasant Street | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Macho Alpha | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Demand Ransom | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Raisedonrocknroll | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hansen Gone West | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Party On Dude | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bartbaalu | 20.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chas Tom | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | My Curby | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | West Ghost | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Exactness | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vino Limbo Tango | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Special Concoction | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Strong Response | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shmily | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Electrifying | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Broadway Brett | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Two Minute Man | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Hayworth | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Strollin the Bayou | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mountain Momma | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cubs Win | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Deep Breath (IRE) | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sibilant | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fonda Romana | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Embarrassing | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Under the Table | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | I’m a Lawman | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Amaroq | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rock Can Tour | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ferlin Husky | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lee’s Luck | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Battle N Away | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Starstruck Kitten | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bootleggin | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | My Man Jax | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bruise | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Dimate | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Close Behind | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Yourdecisionotmine | 1.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Saturdays Hangover | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Portico | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Itsprettystormy | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Gem City Jewel | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vindicated Honor | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gold Star Kid | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Bold Drama | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Dazzling Charmist | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Superdyne | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Kind Robin | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Miss Devine | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Congaree Gal | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sturn Donna | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | She’s a Fine Line | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rosie Bear | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Hear the Kiss | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Special Conquest | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tomasita | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | I’m Royale | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Jinvie | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.