July 12, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Nyoman | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | The Curt Fox (GB) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Kyzan | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Wake Up Joe | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dom the Bomb | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | On the Lam | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Savemethelastdance | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pass the Gravy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Nottoway | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Liberal Lunacy | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ghaaleb’s Winner | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Awesome Arion | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Toothpic | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Drinkwiththeirish | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | P R Radio Star | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | In the Chamber | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Resilient Rick | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Giacallure | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Five Green Stars | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Letthebigshot Roll | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Imposing Will | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hesmakingabigscene | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Demand Ransom | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Desierto | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | King of the Score | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Run Your Race | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Gary Luke | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Trumpified | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Justenufftuff | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Sacramento Q | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Willow Ridge | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Gran Duque | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Seeking Fast | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Mendota | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Montana Kid | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Gold Hawk | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Two Minute Man | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Arrogant | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Revolt | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Moonshiner | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unbridled Giant | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Summer Disco | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Paddybdancing | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Expect Elprada | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rio Seco | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Alazan Shiner | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Golden Dart | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Suspenders | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prairie Rebel | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hannity | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Andreas | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Greyt Oak | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Supermans Cape | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Maxus | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | River Evangelist | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Party On Dude | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Northern Trail | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Colonel Fred | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Zarski | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Tapizone | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Hart Hills Road | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Donivan My Boy | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Sea Rover | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Jeff the Lion | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Kid Mac Cool | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Two Pair | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Broadway Duchess | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Curlin’s Prize | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Indigirka | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Helen Hayes | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Antalya | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I’ve Got Issues | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cholla | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Compact Powder | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Paulette | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cassidy Ave | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Silver Skyler | 50.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.