July 7, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Daneira | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Risk E Lifestyle | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Fabriana | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mongolian Time | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lightup the Forest | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cuddle Me | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | J P’s Gia | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nurse Megan | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Jane’s Pride | 50.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Thecatisontheroof | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Francis Leal | 50.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Boyfriend Material | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Bank On Andy (FR) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Cuestion de Tiempo | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trumpi | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ioya Again | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wile E Peyote | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sir Anthony | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sandbagger Al | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Papa Rizzo | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tam | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Allaire | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Meetmeforasmoke | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | She’s Coal Fired | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Drip Brew | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Three Cat Rules | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Je Suis Belle | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Showersofblessings | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hide and Street | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wind Cheater | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Gold Star Kid | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | You Split Tens | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | House of Cortez | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Next Monday | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dr. Bombay | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Z U Soon | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | The Kahn | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zanforce | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Behind Enemy Lines | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | City Position | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Crown Regent | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – American Derby S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Captivating Moon | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ezmosh | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dubby Dubbie | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tap Daddy | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Real Story | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pont Du Gard | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kitten a Gettin | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Proquestor | 50.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Modesty H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | La Manta Gris | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 12 | Daddys Lil Darling | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Daring Duchess | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Prado’s Sweet Ride | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hallie Belle | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sully’s Dream | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Celestial Insight | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Con Te Partiro | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Majestic Angel | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Princess La Quinta | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Church Social | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Oh So Terrible | 50.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Go Baby Run | 50.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Hatoof S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Mountain Momma | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Hayworth | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Go Noni Go | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cool Beans | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Beach Waltz | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Colonia (FR) | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cheeky Cherub | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bridaled Temper | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Drinks On Me | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rahway | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Madame Milan | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bet She Wins | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Stars And Stripes S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Arklow | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Canessar (FR) | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nessy | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Catcho En Die (ARG) | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Soglio | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Slim Shadey (GB) | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Harlan Strong (ARG) | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bronson | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 6 | Twenty Four Seven | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 12 | 11 | Cartoon | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Memory Bank | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 10 | 10 | High On Sugar | 50.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Arlington H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christian C | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Hot Dad | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Divisidero | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Synchrony | 1.20 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Revved Up | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Roman Approval | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Compass Zone | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Just Howard | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Western Elegance | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Tizzarunner | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Converge | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Twenty Four Seven | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Bold Drama | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Tippy | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Blessed Union | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Makada | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | V J’s Bet | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Gwendalyn Sue | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cloche | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Flashing Tiz | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Valya’s Vengeance | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bird Key | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Avery A. | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Superstar Diva | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Fleet Tigress | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | First Hoosier | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.