July 4, 2018 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bonita Bay | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Virginia Eloise | 1.20 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dizzy | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Slieve Mish | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brittas Bay | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Glaze | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | She’s Delightful | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Special Relativity | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Diamond Jen Brady | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fair Regis | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Leah’s Dream | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mad Dog Matters | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Solitary Gem | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Manila S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Raging Bull (FR) | 1.20 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Up the Ante | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hangman | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Westerland (GB) | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sea Foam | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Factor This | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Barefoot Angel | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Merger of Banks | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | The I Man | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Carmine’s Honor | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bad to Dah Bone | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Burkie | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Skittles | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Breathing Shadow | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Long | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hardly Mate | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miko | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Love | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moment of Triumph | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | B Three | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Peaches and Spice | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Closing Bell | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Bird’s Eye View | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Patterson Cross | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Markitoff | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Royal Albert Hall (GB) | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Soluble (GER) | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Focus Group | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mills | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Snap Decision | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Heavy Meddle | 1.80 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Runaway Lute | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Mr. Buff | 1.80 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stretch’s Stone | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Syndergaard | 2.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Arthur’s Hope | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Benevolence | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Riff Raff | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Curuzu | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Data Dependent | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Golden Orb | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | City Day | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Night Time Lady | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Amertume | 2.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Closing Statement | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Beckoning (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tocame Linda | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Matty’s Magnum | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Kitten’s Covergirl | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fairy Link | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Truly Courageous | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Gentle Annie | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Galway Girl | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Caitriona | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Aussie Ahvee | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Seattle Frost | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Zecha | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Starship Rockette | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lune Lake | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | That’snothername | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nazay | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Magical Romance | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Youth Gone Wild | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Princess Rashelle | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.