June 29, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Katie the Cutie | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ritzy Lass | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | What What What | 1.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cape Diva | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Princess Lu Lu | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Serve | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | News Box | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Doc Kane | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tenkoz | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Doctor Lee | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One Fine Ride | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Speightstime | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | La Fee Verte | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sugar Included | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Claire’s Kitty | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mine Mine Mine | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Iris Dancer | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Key Moment | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Don’t Tell Lydia | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Kristizar | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Champagne Anyone | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Tapping Pearl | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Merada | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady T N T | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Martian | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Chikara | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sally’s Curlin | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | First to Dance | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Into the South | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 12 | Cherry Wine | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 3 | Kitten’s Karma | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Tapsolute | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | Hint of Roses | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 9 | Phat Man | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2B | 14 | Term of Art | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 11 | Rocky Tough | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Vigilante | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Krampus | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Special Ops | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Creative Courage | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Zorzor | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 3 | Turf Titan | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | All Right | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sacred Walk | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Spanish Mane | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | National Pride | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Red Kite | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 6 | Bodie Tap | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Got Gold | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Mt. Rushmore | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Satellite | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Botswana | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Good Offense | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Data Gold | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Positive Vibes | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Triple Dog Dare | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Teletap | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Long On Luck | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Soul P Say | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tizabreeze | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dreamer’s Point | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Moneymeister | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Saved At Dawn | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Princesse Rafaela | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Princess Causeway | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mustard | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Candy Crush | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Somewhere | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Dearest Ella | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ginny B | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Battle Angel | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Molto Bella | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Actif Vows | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Jimmy D | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | King Valero | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Limation | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Event Driven | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Watch Me Whip | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | First Spring | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Conscripted | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Portal | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bantu | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hot Springs | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Plug Catcher | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Country | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Burnin Daylight | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sekondi | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fred’stwirlincandy | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Giant Honor | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | True Dream | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bo Peep | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Princess Warrior | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Good Creation | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Auspicious Babe | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Over Thinking | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miz K | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sydney Freeman | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Imperial Express | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tapit City | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Believeinholidays | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Yondering | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Scat Big Dad | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Victory Lane | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Valycove | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Thunder Mesa | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hurry Back | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Makeamericagreat | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Gottsacker | 50.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mjolnir | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Taranto | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.