June 28, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 3 | Burnt Bluff | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Promises Broken | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chesapeake City | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Distorted Ransom | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mucho Mas Grande | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Finglas | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fulkerson | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Vicksburg | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Thousand Percent | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Redeye | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Backtohisroots | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | One Bet From Even | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Yankee Seven | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kool Patriot | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Anothrdayatthelake | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tactical Quality | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Lookin for a Kiss | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Restless Rambler | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Kid Perfect | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Will Call | 1.20 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Latent Revenge | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Smart Spree | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fort Fortitude | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Angaston | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Flight Risk | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Alexandros | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | The Moment Is Now | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lielielie | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sassy King | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pop Culture | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aether | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Royal Edition | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Free Run | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Two Bit Kid | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ready and Rich | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Souper Jackpot | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bodefecta | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mister Harvey | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tight Ten | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tobacco Road | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baytown Macca | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Mr Zydeco | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mr. Ankeny | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Oro de Tejano | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | J Zar | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mindprado | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 9 | Sweeping Paddy | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Peru (GB) | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Coco Channel | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Arch of Troy | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | English Affair | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | On My Toes | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Smart Emma | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Downton Kitten | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dutch Parrot | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Come On Dover | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon Resolution | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Front Door | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tiz Our Turn | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Quality Rolls | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bryzzo | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Nocturnal Mission | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Evening Tide | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Kleeve Edge | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Naples Legacy | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Kitten’s Slew | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Big Blue Magic | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Soft Cheese | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Trueamericanbeauty | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Front Row Debbie | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maximus Beauty | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Holly Go Lightly | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.