June 23, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5A | 5 | How’s My Bud | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Prados Way | 1.60 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kahramani | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rock Shandy | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dublinyourmoney | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Midnight’s Fantasy | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Primal | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Saracosa | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Gentle Ruler | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cloak of Secrecy | 1.40 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Twin Channel | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Peter’s Kitten | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Snuck Out | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Woody’s Reward | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bless the Rains | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Toasted | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Its a Journey | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Misleading Lady | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Nineteenth Street | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | I’mluckysgirl | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Thirteen Songs | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Jimmy Joe | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | La Maquina Gris | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Front Page | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Baytown Lex | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Checkmark | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sports Story | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Warrior | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Superior’s Boy | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Little Kansas | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Market King | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ninth Street | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Blankenbaker | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bano Solo | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Most Mischief | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Maya Solomea | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Midtown | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lady’s Weekend | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mads | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Put Da Blame On Me | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pinch Hit | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Champagne Problems | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Legacy | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Promise of Spring | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Love ‘n’ Happiness (BRZ) | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Impasse | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Travelling Midas | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dreamology | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Shoreline | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Formula One | 2.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fox Red | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Dahik | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Apollo’s Leap | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Brilliant Decision | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stealth | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Chocolate Ride | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Rocky Tough | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Lookin for a Kiss | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Le Ken (ARG) | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Saham | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | One Mean Man | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tweet Kitten | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Derby Champagne | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Siem Riep | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Archanova | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Crosswalk | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Big Gray Rocket | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Forevamo | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Spikes Shirl | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Icatiro | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Majestic Affair | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bordini | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Adulation | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Barry Lee | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Roxelana Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Astrollinthepark | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Kentucky | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vertical Oak | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mythical Tale | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Annathela | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Golden Domer | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Julerette | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Mutajaded | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mister Maestro | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Grade One | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seize | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sharm El Sheikh | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Red Clay Magic | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Time On Target | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Extricate | 4.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mr Ashley | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Parade Blue | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Strolling | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Awesome Fu | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.