June 21, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Forge Ahead Franki | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sights and Sounds | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Candy Carlos | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Red Again | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Aitutaki | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cedar Creek | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Zena Rules | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ashy Taty | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Rubi | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stylitude | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Honor Bar | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maria Rose | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eye On Harper | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Riddlemeree | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Fast Track Kathern | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Araminta | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lucky Move | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aikenetta | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Economies of Scale | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cinder | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | All the Juice | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Captain Cade | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Major Perfection | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Layoffthehighones | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Berko | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mountain Warrior | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bravo Dixie | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fighting for Grace | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stack Em High | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Maya Solomea | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 14 | Mads | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Myhotrodlincoln | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | No Way Never (IRE) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Real Money | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Forloveofcountry | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Chase Greatness | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Carter Cat | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | El Ahijado | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mr. Sarcastic | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dominante | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Johny’s Bobby | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cowboys Dream | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Duke of Monroe | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Hardly a Secret | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Race Me Home (IRE) | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tiznoble | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nileator | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Catanova | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Racer | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Squeeze | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brerry | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Philoctetes | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Turbo Shaft | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Queen Mum | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Everyonelovesjimmy | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cathedral Reader | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Emma Kate | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Miss Katie Bug | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | C P Quality | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | No Limit | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Red Hot Rio | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flat Out Fast | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Midnight Las Vegas | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Private Vigilante | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Frank the Butcher | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Buzzkillington | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ubettereconizeson | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Foots | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mun Up | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Splash for Gold | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.