June 17, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cheating Ex | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Babaknowsevrything | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gata Salvaje | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cape Time | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | River Muskrat | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | B Deb’s Fortune | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cape of Honor | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Curlabella | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Backside Belle | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Philoctetes | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Calm Pacific | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baratti | 1.40 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | King of All Media | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stormy Pacific | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Salsa’s Return | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Red Corvette | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tabaddol | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Surprise Prize | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Altito | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wildwoodsgreatest | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Etruscan | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Memphisinmay | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Husky Clipper | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gizmo Jones | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Snickerboxer | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pontastic | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Omega Moon | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Air Strike | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Leinster | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Johnny Banks | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | True to Dixie | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Locomotion | 3.50 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Delinquent | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Just Like Richie | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bud’s Bayonet | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Too Dim | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Circle Unbroken | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cha Mono | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Midnight Shine | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sammy Wonder Stone | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Woelf Den | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crackin Jon | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Utmost Intensity | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Maximus Beauty | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Weneedtotalk | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fashion Envy | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Star Quest | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Deauville Mist | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sohni | 3.50 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Touchet | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Penance | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | W. B. Smudge | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Maniacal | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kissthatbabygoodby | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hammers Vision | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Grand Candy | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Platinum Prince | 2.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chief Hosa | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sonoma Crush | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Burgameister | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | East Moon | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tap Gun | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Area | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sahara Breeze | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Charreada | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Brassy and Sassy | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Little T K | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Forever | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Chamade | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Pray for Leslie | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Quick Quick Quick | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | It Was Considered | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maybe Wicked | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Laney | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Queen Bernardina | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | What a Star | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | C Islandsurprise | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Its a Journey | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Blasted Boss | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Star’s Bella Vita | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gris Gris | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sugar Cube | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Princess Erindelle | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Galilea | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shes a True Beauty | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Love On Tides | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ruby Sioux | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.