June 15, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Hymn to Inanna | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Musabaqa | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Double Oaked | 1.80 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Into Money | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Summer Storm | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dancin in a Storm | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Action Everyday | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Esposito | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brockton George | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dapper Sam | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mansoor | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fulkerson | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Leo Meister | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tres Troubadours | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pistol Box | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Caduceus | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lascivious | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sergeant McNerney | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Court’s Revenge | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hellfire | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8A | 8 | Call to Service | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Devil Fish | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Oceans of Love | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wild Type | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Adventurous Lady | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Road Tiger | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Lucy | 4.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Vortices | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gator Vindication | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Giro Kate | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sworn Silence | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tensas Thought | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Katie’s Reward | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Peeps | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Waki Patriot | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Almafuerte | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mutation | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Sheikh of Sheikhs | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cashel Rock | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prime Issue | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | El Charro | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Noshackleshere | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Izzy the Warrior | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jazzy Times | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Bluegrass Gem | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Donwell | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Entertainer | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sidavi | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blame Will | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | How’s My Bud | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ninth Hour | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brave John | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | All Hansens Ondeck | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Deadline | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tamit (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bella Bella | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Runninwiththewind | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Church Social | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shezaprado | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ellens Birthday | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Upstage | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rilla | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Mizzen Air | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Prom Theme | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Erin’s Wish | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Includere | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lemon Lover | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Classic Bo | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lookout Angel | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beloved Betty | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.