June 15, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Hymn to Inanna 2.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Musabaqa 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Double Oaked 1.80 3.4 6-1
6 6 Into Money 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Summer Storm 6.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Dancin in a Storm 6.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Action Everyday 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Esposito 1.80 2.6 5-1
4 4 Brockton George 2.50 3 6-1
1 1 Dapper Sam 2.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Mansoor 12.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Fulkerson 12.00 3.9 7-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Leo Meister 2.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Tres Troubadours 2.50 4.2 8-1
6 6 Pistol Box 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Caduceus 3.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Lascivious 20.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Sergeant McNerney 6.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Court’s Revenge 15.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Hellfire 30.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8A 8 Call to Service 3.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Devil Fish 6.00 4.1 8-1
3A 3 Oceans of Love 3.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Wild Type 5.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Adventurous Lady 3.50 5.2 10-1
10 10 Road Tiger 8.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Lady Lucy 4.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Vortices 20.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Gator Vindication 8.00 7 13-1
6 6 Giro Kate 15.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sworn Silence 2.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Tensas Thought 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Katie’s Reward 3.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 My Peeps 2.50 4 7-1
2 2 Waki Patriot 6.00 5 9-1
3 3 Almafuerte 8.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Mutation 12.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Sheikh of Sheikhs 2.50 1.8 3-1
8 7 Cashel Rock 3.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Prime Issue 4.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 El Charro 5.00 4.5 9-1
7 6 Noshackleshere 15.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Izzy the Warrior 6.00 5 9-1
1 1 Jazzy Times 6.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Bluegrass Gem 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Donwell 2.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Entertainer 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Sidavi 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Blame Will 3.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 How’s My Bud 10.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Ninth Hour 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Brave John 10.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 All Hansens Ondeck 20.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Deadline 2.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Tamit (IRE) 3.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Bella Bella 6.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Runninwiththewind 8.00 5 9-1
3 3 Church Social 4.00 5 9-1
1 1 Shezaprado 4.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Ellens Birthday 20.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Upstage 20.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Rilla 20.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Mizzen Air 3.50 2.5 5-1
9 8 Prom Theme 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Erin’s Wish 3.00 3.6 7-1
8 7 Includere 5.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Lemon Lover 4.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Classic Bo 12.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Lookout Angel 15.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Beloved Betty 12.00 6.6 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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