May 31, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Kiss My Note | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sparkys Surprise | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | No Limit | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mun Up | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Trenton Bridge | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Buzzkillington | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Haywired | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bobby the Brain | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Frost Or Frippery | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Star Dog | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Red Again | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bold Shot | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | California Night | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Truth Be Tolled | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Zanesville | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Smart Remark | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 5 | Crosswalk | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Dragon Drew | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Seven Trumpets | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Believe in Royalty | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Caymans Cobra | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Blue Ridge Scout | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Richie G | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Maya Solomea | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cat Addiction | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dantu | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Whataboutlamar | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Perfect Graydar | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kool Patriot | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chase Runner | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 7 | Chromium | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Moon Gate Warrior | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mucho Mas Grande | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Claymaker | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Woelf Den | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Faithful Neighbor | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Safe Passage | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bud’s Bayonet | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Belfast Cowboy (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Seize | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Totally Boss | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Grade One | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Turbo S | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Burgameister | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Drop Kick | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | El Venue | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Parade Blue | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jemrose | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mrs Rocco | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bella Moon | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fashion Envy | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Nautia | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ashy Taty | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eye On Harper | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bonnie Arch | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | May Lily | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Ellery Lane (IRE) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dubara (GB) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | English Affair | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 2 | Sensitive | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Arch of Troy | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Gris Gris | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Smart Emma | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Rose to Glory | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Sailor’s Valentine | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Princess Erindelle | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.