May 26, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Etruscan | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mineyerownmalone | 1.60 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Awesome Gal | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Altito | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Snickerboxer | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blame Angel | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Nineteenth Street | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shanghai Tariff | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Parol | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Thirteen Songs | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Annathela | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | I’mluckysgirl | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Keertana Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | La Manta Gris | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Daring Duchess | 0.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Creative Thinking | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Galilea | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tweety Show | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Araminta | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sunday Strait | 50.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Five O One | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | The Money Monster | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | El Charro | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hammers Vision | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Conquest Hiosilver | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tarpys Zapper | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sunny’s Rainbow | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jazzy Times | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Izzy the Warrior | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Come On Dover | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sky Promise | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Discovered | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Family Kitten | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Potential Danger | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mayo’s Bid | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Killeen | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Colonel Fred | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Toothpic | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ghost Story | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Captain Cade | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Buck Island Day | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Omen of Change | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Checkmark | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bobby Jack | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Major Perfection | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Berko | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Trooper Thorn | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Promissory Note | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Lou’s Chardonnay | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Honor With Pride | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Golden Rose | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dance Rhythms | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sohni | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heavenly Hill | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sea Shack | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Parking Ticket | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Triple Dog Dare | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Makeamericagreat | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Finished | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jailhouse Kitten | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Almoreb | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sassy King | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Forbidden Kitten | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | El Capa Rojo | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Headsail | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Honorable Treasure | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bold Prophet | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gray Sky | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Home Base | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tap Master | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Portfolio Manager | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Country | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Souper Smart | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Winning Colors S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Miss Kentucky | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Golden Mischief | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Treble | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Golden Domer | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pinch Hit | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Brave Daisey | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Sharky’s Ledger | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mercertown | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Gray Nile | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Elusive Hero | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Mo Zone | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Meistermind | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Fireball Shot | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Blasphemy | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Rushin Tothecircle | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Soul of the Hero | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Delinquent | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Alexandros | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.