May 25, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Claire’s Kitty | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mizz Fabulous | 1.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mine Mine Mine | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Just You Wait | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sugar Included | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Foreverinyourfavor | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Line Judge | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Thatcher Street | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vigilante | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bern’ James Bern | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Montu | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nileator | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Racer | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gustnado | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Teletap | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Trouble Coffee | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Menacing | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Victory Cigar | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pop Culture | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lucky Britches | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Water Moccasin | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ixtepec Town | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 1 | Thirsty Kitty | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Eyeinthesky | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Already Gone | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Adventurous Lady | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bourbon ‘n Ditch | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Payntermaniac | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Factress | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Went With the Wind | 4.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Swanky Style | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Luna Nueva | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3A | 2 | Senorita Tapit | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Mizzen Colony | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Summer Fling | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Brenda’s Fever | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Macho Orb | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ezpzylemonsqueezy | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Evening Tide | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Key Moment | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shy | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Global Warm Me | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Union Obsession | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sarabi | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Union Bowman | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Moonshiner | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Twice Mike | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tabaddol | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Woelf Den | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Owl Creek | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Due to His Charm | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rous | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Still Lookin | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Faction Cat | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Awesome Fu | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Transatlantic Kiss | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southeast | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Speightstime | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Match Play | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Abounding Joy | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Hua Mulan | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Bella Belle | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Nymue’s Treasure | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Bella Bella | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tamit (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dagney’s Warrior | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Focused | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Church Social | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Runninwiththewind | 5.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz My Lady | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pearl of the Nile | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Perfection Cat | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ellens Birthday | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sahara Breeze | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Maybe Wicked | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Trace | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Honey Rose | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Made Great Again | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vamp | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Say It Softly | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Belleinthecity | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cacahuatita | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mo Mo | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.