May 18, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Gracequinnannamady | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Ring Me Up | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rainwalker | 1.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Racey Reecey | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Commercial Appeal | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Mystery | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Factory of Faith | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shes a True Beauty | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blasted Boss | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Star’s Bella Vita | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Love On Tides | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ruby Sioux | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Jenna J | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | She Loves Leather | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Princess Lu Lu | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Budget Cut | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Masked Talent | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Reign | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Starship Aquarius | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mister Maestro | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Haywired | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Forge Ahead Franki | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Red Again | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sights and Sounds | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Swamp Ruler | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Inmyfathersimage | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Blame the Frog | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flion Lynn Lion | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | City Diva | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Seranitsa | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Devious Charm | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She Will Rock | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lightscameraaction | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shanghai Rain | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Lucy | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Maniacal | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Control Stake | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Chiltern Street | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Done Deal | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Speight Swiftly | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Zapperini | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Grand Candy | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lanier | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Irritator | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Tapit City | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Animus | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vinyl | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | La Maquina Gris | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Indigo Yankee | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Caduceus | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Quality Rolls | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bodie Tap | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | War Daddy | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Soul Beam | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gostisbehere | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Soglio | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Plug Catcher | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Midnight Clear | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cruz Diez | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Smart and Broke | 50.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tobias | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tweety Show | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Honor Mission | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Arkadag | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Allthewrongreasons | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Big Bad Zin | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Achiever | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lielielie | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sacred Walk | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thegistofit | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stack Em High | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.