May 18, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Jericho | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | King of the Score | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zimmerman | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flight Mission | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Forgot to Forget | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Burning Approval | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fort Commander | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Dreamofjean E. | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Tensas Thought | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Doggerwinii | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Diamonds At Dawn | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lu Sea | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Drip Brew | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bizzee Mischief | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Royalty Princess | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Warretta | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Risk E Lifestyle | 0.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Saint Alexius | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | No Smokin Here | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Disrespectful | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | It’s Springtime | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Prada Storm | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dom the Bomb | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nyoman | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Only Liquor | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Exactness | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gorgeous George | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cheburashka | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ghaaleb’s Appeal | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | September Surprise | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Macbu | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Itsagimme’s Girl | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rachelgotstephen | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Feisty Chi Chi | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Viola Marie | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lexi Summer | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Logi | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Amaroq | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Gita’s Lad | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | G. C. Crackerjack | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | R Fast Life | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Harlanday | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Another Richie | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | President Elect | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Danny B | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | W W Russian Gold | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Descarado | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Holy Cookie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Nook | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Awalkinthemoonlite | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Sacred Canyon | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Mission Storm | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tapnfire | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Wildwood Scat | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Hide and Street | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Sing One Song | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sark Lady | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Road to Zanzibar | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Kara’s Angel | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Campioni | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Twenty Four Seven | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | River Evangelist | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gain Ground | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Smokinwatchstopper | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Moonlight Mischief | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Big Dinner | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | New Atlas | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hart Hills Road | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fleetway | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spanish Justice | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High On Sugar | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Richie Rocks | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Pale Hose | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Greenhorn | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Brave Benny | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Full Heart | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Barnyard Fiddler | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Golden Story | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Prize Native | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Strong Response | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Under the Table | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Two Minute Man | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.