May 17, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Proud Dixie | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Misleading Lady | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Diamonds for Leah | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | C Islandsurprise | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rose to Glory | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Red Seven | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lo’s Journey | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Colonel Fred | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Son of a Saint | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Norco | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Minegold | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mr Darcy | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rowdy the Warrior | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Terrible Day (ARG) | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Two Bit Kid | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Ready and Rich | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alwaysmining | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Signalman | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Grit and Glory | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sir Truebadour | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Maya Solomea | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cabo’s Rumor | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Northern Ranger | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Supreme Venture | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hugh B. | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cataroux | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prados Way | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Granian | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Utmost Intensity | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Love Thy Kitten | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Doctor Dora | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Shy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Absolute Love | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Onzaway | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tofino | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Iris Dancer | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Just Hattie | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Rollover Risk | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Estrela Cadente | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Glispee | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Surely You Jest | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wyatt’s Town | 1.20 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jacktastic | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Greeley Can Win | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sports Story | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Myluckycharm | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | French Dancer | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Annathela | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Gagaoveryou | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | China Grove | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Golden Domer | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Golden Days | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Ethyl Ether | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 7 | Bowie | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Melaleuca | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Victory to Victory | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Vision of Justice | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | The Craic | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Pastime | 30.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fiesta | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Circle Unbroken | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Too Dim | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Brother Louis | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Aitutaki | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | For Goodness Sake | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bladerunner | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bud’s Bayonet | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Midnight Shine | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Royal Mocha | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Enlisted Man | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Purimeter | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.