May 13, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Pulling G’s | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Whateverybodywants | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | More On Tap | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dos Cuernos | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Etruscan | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Opportunistic | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Angel Heritage | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Celia’s Song | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cathedral Reader | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Torri’s On My Mind | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flash n’ Dance | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Thesweetesttaboo | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Esther Rising | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hell On Heels | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Krissys Manicure | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Belles Orb | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pretty Greeley | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Swinging Bridge | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Serious I Candy | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Dial Me | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Lil Vie | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | My Kinda Devil | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Soft Cheese | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zena Rules | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | My Dark Secret | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Market Top | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Paddys Class | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jemrose | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Radar Vision | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Medlin | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bella Moon | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cuddle Kitten | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ashy Taty | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Bold | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | As Fast as You Can | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kiwi Cat | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Gata Salvaje | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Lou’s Chardonnay | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cocktail Waitress | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | High Fashion Star | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Concord Coupe | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Amirite | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cape Time | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Princess Giavanna | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6A | 5 | Pennyann’s Inn | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Tapit At Ann | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ring Me Up | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hour City | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Findley Isle | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Love That Lute | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Power Walker | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sidavi | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Ingadore | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kahramani | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fulkerson | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Giant Payday | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Parlor | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Derby Champagne | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nileator | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Italian Charm | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sticksstatelydude | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vettori Kin (BRZ) | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Net Gain | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4A | 4 | Upstage | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Auntie’s the One | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Skeptic | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cool Beans | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Princessof the Nyl | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Queen Bernardina | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Villamay | 4.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sundereya | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Diamondcoat | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tales of War | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Abraham | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Baratti | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Above the Bar | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wildwoodsgreatest | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Calm Pacific | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ceeky | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blame Angel | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Glitnir | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Chow | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.