May 12, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Indium | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Sheikh of Sheikhs | 1.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Esposito | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Junket | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | King Abner | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bluegrass Gem | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Brave Soul | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Catauga County | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mighty Ghost | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vandelay | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | First Recruit | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bar Ryder | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Super Factor | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Dustem Carolina | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Arcelor | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Compose | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Barbary Hall | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Soul | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ivy’s College Fund | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | One Sharp Lady | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Hint of Roses | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Iconic | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Trustworthy | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Front Door | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pryor | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tonedaddy | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Knights Key | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Prime Issue | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Gorgeous Bird | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lookin for a Kiss | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | W. B. Smudge | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Hunka Burning Love | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sonoma Crush | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Mjolnir | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Quenlenny | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Chuck’s Dream | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Totally Boss | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Slick Silver | 1.60 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | True to Dixie | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Certified | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wild Road | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | In the Mood | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Desert Duchess | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Dontmesswithjoanne | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Browse | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Burma Road | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Storm the Hill | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Youngest Daughter | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Miss Nancy | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Inchargeofme (GB) | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Air On Fire | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brave Nation | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fort Peck | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rushin Tothecircle | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | New Legend (KOR) | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Stuart Hall | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ghost Rocket | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Gem | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Unbridled Sidney Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Daylight Ahead | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Morticia | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Justa Lady | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Triple Chelsea | 1.80 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ruby Notion | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Natural Wonder | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Excessivespending | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Our Valor | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | There’syourtrouble | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Moon River (IRE) | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Magicalmeister | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Kate’s Golden Dude | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Private Vigilante | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Soul P Say | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Charge the Line | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Big Iron | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Taruca | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8A | 8 | Undercover Lover | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Last Drop of Wine | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Texas Munny Man | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Naples Lady | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Love to Share | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Don’t Stop Maria | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beau Belle | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Broadway Duchess | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cheeky Cherub | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Buddy Ann | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bless the Rains | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Malibu Treasure | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mizzen Colony | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Will Ye Go Lassie | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.