May 12, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bearing Secrets | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rain Expression | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Baby Do It | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Splashs Showbiz | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Endlessopportunity | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lightup the Forest | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wire Me Suerte | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ava Atticus | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Jean Elizabeth | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Arabella Bella | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fashion’s Touch | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Strollin the Bayou | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Drama Run | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Alex’s Bourbon | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hope N Wishes | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Northern Alliance | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Odachi | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Milliondollarhiway | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Posh Ruler | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mystique Artiste | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lighten Up Frances | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Prince Cheval | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Curby | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Costly King | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Or Sunday | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Key to the Bridge | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Greeley’s Special | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spectacular Act | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | W W Distinction | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Shes Just Capital | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Brown Eyed Blues | 1.20 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sweet Annie Cat | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Queens Day Victory | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Momma Joann | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shez a Queenie | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lookin At Vanessa | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Penny Slots | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Khatun | 1.20 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tam | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fionetta | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Para Vivir | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Galehorn | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chosen Facts | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dundalk Bay | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Give Me the Money | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Appollos Baby Girl | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Overdriven Cat | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Hurraca | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Hanshin Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Wellabled | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ghost Hunter | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Goneghost | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Master Merion | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Western Elegance | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Matrooh | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Crewman | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Christian C | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Harmac | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cerunnos | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Andrew the Giant | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | I Am too Wild | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Awesome Arion | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Attain Success | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sharp Money | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Last Spring | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Graffito | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sailor Brodee | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Unbridled Ruler | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big O’s Tavern | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Willie’s Mon | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Alwaysmypleasure | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Hellofaguy | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Greeleys Spirit | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Changn Fivehundred | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sync O’Paddy | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Demand Ransom | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Autumn Leaf Fall | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kentucky Shine | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Macho Alpha | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Two Nephews | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blackhawk Warrior | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Valovich | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bartbaalu | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.