May 11, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Play the Break | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shea’s Cool | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lucy’s Revenge | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bella Be Proud | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Katie the Cutie | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Best You Ever Seen | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Roundaboutation | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10A | 10 | War Bridle | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dantu | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Town Drunk | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Whataboutlamar | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3A | 2 | Infantry | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | My Perfect Graydar | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Glorious Weekend | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Duke of Monroe | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Getupbabygetup | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Eye On Harper | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mrs Rocco | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Heavenly Kingdom | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tiger Lisa | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kieran Street | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Monkey | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Quiet Flattering | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flashy Trick | 20.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Closing Strike | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Claret Jug | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dynamic Response | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | B First | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Leo Meister | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brouillard | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Howardstown | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | I’m a Lucky Guy | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Road Heat | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gran Red | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | His Royal Majesty | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Come On Dover | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Aviator Parks | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Something Bird | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flash Harry | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Enhanced Edition | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dirty Day | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Limit Your Losses | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Silver Giant | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Fancy Man | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6A | 6 | More On Tap | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Colony Strike | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Snickerboxer | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Under and Over | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Eden Ridge | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Moon Gate Warrior | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Consultation | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ucanthankmelater | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Far Out Kailee | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Woelf Den | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tabaddol | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Blank Canvas | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Corker | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | You Flatter Me | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ghosted | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jan One | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Vyera | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lady Boots | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | On the Come | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bel Canto | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | All the Juice | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Therighttobeararms | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Originator | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Elizabeth Darcy (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Missseventhirteen | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Almafuerte | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mermaid of Honor | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Golden Rose | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fashion Runaway | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Babaknowsevrything | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Patti Patti Patti | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Klassie Connect | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Security | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Curlabella | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Elenathena | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blues Corner | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Backside Belle | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sassy Zeeman | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Twin Vows | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.