May 11, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Baby Do It | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Jami Racer | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | McKinli’sbabyblues | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hoossensation | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Have the Facts | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Daneira | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | La Flor | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Prada Storm | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Richiesgotswagger | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Contraction | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Northern Trail | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dancing Position | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rock Can Tour | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wave On Wave | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sensational Zip | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Richiesonarampage | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Justenufftuff | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Taco Grande | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lakota Luke | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Holycitys Miracle | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hammers Thirsty | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Moon Over Montana | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Memory Bank | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Hesmakingabigscene | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Don’task Don’ttell | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mighty Manfred | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bold Rally | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Honovi | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Imposing Will | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Little Baltar | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Hey Pretty Boy | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Notimeforthat | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pablo Del Monte | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bushrod | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Bajan Rhythm | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Royal Commish | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gray Mensch | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pale Hose | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Boom Box | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jive Daddy | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Saucy At Midnight | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Peppermint Ice | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nurse Megan | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gritty Kitty | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lakota Rose | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bettyblue | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jane’s Pride | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Midnite in Miami | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blanco Brush | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Shaban | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Specialeyes | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hot Dad | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Santa Americana | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hourly | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Suspenders | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Candy Carlos | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Good Intent | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | P J’s Awesome | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fort Dixie | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Checkmate Charlie | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ferlin Husky | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lee’s Luck | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Return of the Rock | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Alien Season | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 9 | The Curt Fox (GB) | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Holly Field | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Bootleggin | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Croce d’Oro | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prima Storm | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Summer Castle | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spin Hard | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Amaroq | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dumbmark | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Rake It Up | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Mistletoe Miss | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lil Rum Tum | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Partay | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Royal’s Position | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kim Dandy | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Brittney On Blades | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Neuqua | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Countess St Michel | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Notnthemoodforthat | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Way too Smarte | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.