May 5, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Dr Winn Kyi | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Church Road | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Case Cracker | 1.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nook | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Acrobatic Ally | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Artic Vortex | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Smoke ‘n’ Gloat | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Iter | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | What’s Up Dude | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Riv | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spectacular Road | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Go Oshie Go | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Jeff the Lion | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Richiesgotswagger | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Devileye | 1.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | River Cactus | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Romeo O Romeo | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Belfast Cowboy (IRE) | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Northern Trail | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Liberal Lunacy | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Take Charge Dude | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hoonani Road | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | P R Radio Star | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Garrison K | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Three Cat Rules | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Emily’s Entourage | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Meetmeforasmoke | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Can She Scoot | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Drip Brew | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hal’s Mischief | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Surprenante | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | La Candelita | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Real de Jalpa | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Glittering Jewel | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Na Pali Spirit | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tizway That Way | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Jinx Johnson | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Miraculously | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Soul Singer | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dreamadreamforme | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wayaway | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dark Bloom | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Kid Creed | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Making a Marc | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sharp Money | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Ioya Again | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kaliningrad | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tapizone | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Surf Shack | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | House of Cortez | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | You Split Tens | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Gem Alta | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Proquestor | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Z U Soon | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Solo Drink | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sir Dagan | 30.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Workingforaliving | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Warleggan | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | My Man Jax | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Antrim’s Giant | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bruise | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Drinkwiththeirish | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gold Star Kid | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Demopolis | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Gran Duque | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Skycraft | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spanish Coyote | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sacramento Q | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Torba | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Speared | 20.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | R Four O One K | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Appollos Baby Girl | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Looktheotherway | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Je Suis Belle | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sullyvin’s G G | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Hey Hey | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Sanilac | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Lady Dozer | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Kiss’n Rosie | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Greeleys Angel | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Silver Saver | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Doda Doodleallday | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.