May 4, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Go Google Yourself | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | America’s Tale | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She’s Pretty Lucky | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kram | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | First Alternate | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Turbo Shaft | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Special Trip | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Malibu Treasure | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bless the Rains | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Will Ye Go Lassie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Spark Joy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Cheeky Cherub | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 10 | Hot Zone | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Pachinko | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Wild N Ready | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tactical Affair | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dabinett | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Bridaled Temper | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Emmy Performance | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Killay (GB) | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Real Sister | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | First Kiss | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Bourbon Gleam | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Willcat | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Quenlenny | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Bugle Notes | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Keros | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cummings | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Sharky’s Ledger | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Industrialist | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Encinitas | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jefazo | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bueno Bueno Bueno | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lanier | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Brerry | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Zapperini | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Pont Du Gard | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Great Minds | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 8 | Krampus | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Galton | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Saham | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Keep Quiet (FR) | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sun Lover (GB) | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | One Mean Man | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Compass Zone | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fifth Title | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Thatcher Street | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Eight Belles S. Presented By Kentucky Trailer
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Gas Station Sushi | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Talk Veuve to Me | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Amy’s Challenge | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hold Her Tight | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mia Mischief | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Salt Bae | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Criminal Mischief | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – La Troienne S. Presented By Twinspires.com
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ivy Bell | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Apologynotaccepted | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Abel Tasman | 1.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Martini Glass | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Salty | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Tiger Moth | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Streamline | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Farrell | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Twinspires.com
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Flashaway | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Bucchero | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Will Call | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Vision Perfect | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sonic Boom | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Frisky Magician | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Delectation (GB) | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Restless Rambler | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Latent Revenge | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kid Perfect | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Riser | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Alysheba S. Presented By Sentient Jet
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Awesome Slew | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Hoppertunity | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Always Dreaming | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Good Samaritan | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hawaakom | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Backyard Heaven | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Giuseppe the Great | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hence | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Beautiful Street | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Devine Mischief | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Electric Forest | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sworn Silence | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Upset Brewing | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | She’s the Berries | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maho Bay | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | C P Quality | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Enrage | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Saints’ Girl | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Edgewood S. Presented By Forcht Bank
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Heavenly Love | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Rushing Fall | 0.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Daddy Is a Legend | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Toinette | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Altea (FR) | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Beach Waltz | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beyond Blame | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Figarella’s Queen | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kabella | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Got Stormy | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bo Peep | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Longines Kentucky Oaks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Monomoy Girl | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Midnight Bisou | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | My Miss Lilly | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rayya | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Take Charge Paula | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Eskimo Kisses | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Classy Act | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Coach Rocks | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chocolate Martini | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Patrona Margarita | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wonder Gadot | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sassy Sienna | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Heavenhasmynikki | 50.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kelly’s Humor | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Princessof the Nyl | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 6 | Villamay | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Nucla | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Gio Game | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Ox Eyed Daisy | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | She’s a Julie | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Cognitive | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Good Creation | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Uno Sueno | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Banshee Birdie | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sydney Freeman | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Agent Provocateur | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Jan One | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Ipanema Beach | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tequila Sunrise | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rizzoli | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Hanalei Moon | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | As I Please | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Actress On Board | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Fairly Honest | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Auspicious Babe | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Say It Softly | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.