May 4, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ready to Fight | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Special Concoction | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Flatter the Queen | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Promises to Keep | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Not Chopped Liver | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Another Richie | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Matthew’s Thunder | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Circle | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Landing Gear | 0.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Saturdays Hangover | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cheadle | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Helios | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Jennovodka | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Costly King | 1.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Azeg | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Arrogant | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Prince Who | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | A J’s Posse | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mean Intentions | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Greenhorn | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Two Minute Man | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Risk E Lifestyle | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Valiant Lady | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dance Like Katie | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Twin Deuce | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fringe | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tomasita | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rowdy N Pearls | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rosie Bear | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | All Call | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Candy Carlos | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Storming the Beach | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Urban Cool | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | West Village | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Montana Kid | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Golden Gift | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Alpha Warrior | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Dom the Bomb | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Unscathed | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Four Left Feet | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gorgeous George | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hawk’s Image | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Amberjack | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oh Oz | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hay Net | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Deep Breath (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Lola’s the One | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Princess La Quinta | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pop By | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bet She Wins | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Skyluck | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | School Board Prez | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mo’s M V P | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Trappe Valley | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Hellofaguy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Just Blaze | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Cast Iron | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Willow Ridge | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Gary Luke | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Indivisible | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Vapor Viper | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Guard Your Grill | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.