May 2, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cap’s Tale | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Speedmeister | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rock Shandy | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Higher Factor | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Convincing | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Patriot Song | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Utmost Intensity | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Midnight’s Fantasy | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bobby the Brain | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Takin the Sloroad | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Haywired | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cookies Are Good | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bold Shot | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Star Dog | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mark My Way | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Izzy the Warrior | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Aztec Lion | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wildwoodsgreatest | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Whateverybodywants | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Red Again | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Whyruawesome | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Allidoisdreamofyou | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Glitnir | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | No Funny Biz | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Bern’ James Bern | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hollywood Critic | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Calm Pacific | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zambian Dream (CHI) | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | King of All Media | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Catinati | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Montu | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Grandpa’s Dream | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bwana Go | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Zaevion | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Out of the Office | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Better Watch Out | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Trusting Friend | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Paddock Crasher | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Man Kan | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 9 | Cocktail Waitress | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | I’ve Got Grace | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lovelily | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Our Snowflake | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Stay Anchored | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lady Voodoo | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Frittata | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Prayerofpenitence | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sarabi | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Goldberry | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ladrona | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sapphire Jubilee | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Evasive Storm | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Galileo Gal (IRE) | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Phantom Opening | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Our Closure | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Savour the Moment | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Nymue’s Treasure | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Murika | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Wholehearted | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Economies of Scale | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dance Rhythms | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shezappealing | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star Quest | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | True Dream | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | My Dark Secret | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Aguila Negra | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Senor Jobim | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Just a Coinkydink | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Union Cat | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Midnight Pleasure | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | J. S. Choice | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Adulation | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon Country | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Parade Blue | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | British Humor | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Time On Target | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Doc Kane | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Grindelwald | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Toll Guard | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wild Will | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Harlan’s Vador (ARG) | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | News Box | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Laughing Levi | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ryman | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | No Limit | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Court’s Revenge | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | C M Runaway | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gi Gi’s Wildcat | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.