May 1, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Triple Kapalua | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pearl’s Opinion | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ezpzylemonsqueezy | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Claire’s Kitty | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Naples Legacy | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mahdia | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Boom Pow Pow | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tenkoz | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shoe Money | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bronze Age | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ninth Hour | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rocky Roma | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Las Vegas | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Runabout | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Big Nono | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Drop Kick | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Granian | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Netas | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Southeast | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fearless Kitty | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flat Out Fast | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Peace Front | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Rocket Girl | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Belles Orb | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | American Cowgirl | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Aikenetta | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gris Gris | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Angelo’s Ashes | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | About That Base | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ring Me Up | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kitten’s Slew | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | She Loves Leather | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | North of Eden | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Myositis Mystique | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wood Not Mind | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | I Am Miss Brown | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Commercial Appeal | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Show Me Indy | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gracequinnannamady | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Littlebitcranky | 50.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | No Limit | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Shocking Blue | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Ryman | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Harlan’s Vador (ARG) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Wild Will | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Toll Guard | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Just Old School | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beyond the Nile | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blaze a Trail | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Horace Charles | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kowboy Posse | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Uncle Pancho | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Pistol Box | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lascivious | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Arch You Ready | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Chasingthegame | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Savour the Moment | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Ladrona | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tamit (IRE) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Evasive Storm | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Our Closure | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Church Social | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bella Belle | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pistol Packin Rose | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | San Sebastiana (GB) | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Smart Emma | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Philly Mignon | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Runninwiththewind | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ellens Birthday | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Decant | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Day Drinker | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Control Stake | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Guns Loaded | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Crow | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hammers Vision | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spikes Shirl | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fish Trappe Road | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dupree | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | My Dark Secret | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Star Quest | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Safari Kitten | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Altered Mind | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cause Me Grief | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Court of Love | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Paddys Class | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Trivial | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Priss | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Portrait of Emma | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Trueamericanbeauty | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.