April 22, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Town Classic | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | The Gipper | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rapid Dial | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Indian Lover | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bluegrass Gem | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Junket | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Absolute Love | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Focused | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tell Your Mama | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | The Girl Factor | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Willowamina | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Saracosa | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Royal Blessing | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Majestic Affair | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Knights Key | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zulu | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Whyruawesome | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hunka Burning Love | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wildcat Beauty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6A | 6 | Maho Bay | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Chipolina | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Twice Around | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Elizabeth Darcy (IRE) | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7A | 5 | Sirenusa | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Smokin Hot Momma | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Magic Spell | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Vanilla Cat | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Santino | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Tiz B B N | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Mimi’s Ruby Bobby | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Abounding Joy | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Trace | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Glitznglamour | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Daisical | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Showed Up Late | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Penny | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Believe in Victory | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heather’s Vision | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Bantu | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Killeen | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dubby Dubbie | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Come On Dover | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cullum Road | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Messiah | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Colonel Fred | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Knockholt | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Clear | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Shangroyal | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dreamer’s Point | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Twin Farms | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Autostrade | 1.80 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Nottoway | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Two Pops | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Grade One | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chaos Theory | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Kaliningrad | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cruz Diez | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Plug Catcher | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Findley Isle | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Focus Group | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Shortlist | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zumurudee | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Glad Moon (GER) | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Soglio | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | War Daddy | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Huntin Buddy | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gostisbehere | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lo’s Journey | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nice Not Nice | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rakeitin | 50.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Uncle Mitcho | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Travertine | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | The K W Shuffle | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Time for War | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Syrup | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Awesome Times Two | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ride On Faith | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Colonel’s Pride | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Potomac | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Strategic Ekati | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Honor Mission | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Cheytac | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Big Bad Zin | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Garey Park | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Camalus | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Super Factor | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Narrowing Way | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.