April 21, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bagpipes | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Arboretum | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Ingadore | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vibe | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Fulkerson | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tabaddol | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mansoor | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Weneedtotalk | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Soft Cheese | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Faster N Blazes | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nautia | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ashy Taty | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eternal Vow | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Zena Rules | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Track Rose | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rahway | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Special Relativity | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miraculously | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hazana | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | War Eagle’s Love | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Aubrey | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Evenscore | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Secret Town | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Ravish | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Last Tap | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Midnight Buffet | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | More Moola | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sun Dress | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Doctor Dora | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Fashion Star | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Remembering Rita | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Strike the Flag | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Hollywood Strike | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Red Right Hand | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vinyl | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Air On Fire | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | American Sea | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Winter Union | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pendant | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sassy King | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Teryn It Up | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Heza Kitten | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Love Sick Kitten | 1.20 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nobrag Justfact | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Smart Rags | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Applewood | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | End of Spirits | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Katie’s Cowboy | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Burnin Daylight | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bartolome Murillo | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Tiz B B N | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Navajo | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Everyonelovesjimmy | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mermaid of Honor | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Smart Response | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Senza Te | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Enrage | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Black Agnes | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Crimson Creed | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bootsy’s Hadenough | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Divine Queen | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Senior Investment | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Closing Bell | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Siem Riep | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bronson | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | One Liner | 1.60 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sticksstatelydude | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Laddie Boy | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Niigon’s Edge | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | December Seven | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Curlins Vow | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Dixiana Elkhorn S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Dot Matrix | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Itsinthepost (FR) | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Hayabusa One (FR) | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bullards Alley | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | One Go All Go | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Oscar Nominated | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hunter O’Riley | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Call Provision | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Big Bend | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Canessar (FR) | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Danish Dynaformer | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Some in Tieme (BRZ) | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Just Like Richie | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | King of the Court | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Totally Boss | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rahfee Town | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Boots | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Dime Dropper | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Barahin | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mac Jagger | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Willcat | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eisenstaedt | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chateau | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.