April 20, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Agent Provocateur | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Onzaway | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hua Mulan | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Including Me | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mine Mine Mine | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vamp | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Witnessadream | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Electric Avenue | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Class Won | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Twinsanity | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beer Pressure | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Faction Cat | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Doctor Lee | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | New Legend (KOR) | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Animus | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Surely You Jest | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Laser Loop | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr Freeze | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fort Peck | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bat | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tarpys Zapper | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Johnny Obvious | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Grand Candy | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Prime Issue | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Finnegan (IRE) | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Belgian | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Benz | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Harlan’s Vador (ARG) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Runabout | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Warrior Inside | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Just Old School | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Kinsella | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Catauga County | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Still Lookin | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oater | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Immortalize | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Our d’Artagnan | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Absolute Love | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Beau Belle | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Plans to Prosper | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Victory Garden | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bouncy | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lessons From Avery | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flat Meadow | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Antalya | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Corker | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Screenwriter | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Genuwine | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Innocent | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Secret Trick | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Operatic | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Auntie’s the One | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Raging Town | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Upstage | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Moonlit Garden | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Clever Serve | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Takin the Sloroad | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Arch Daddy | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Deeply Undervalued | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Patterson Cross | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Honovi | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Patrick’s Day | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Decisive Triumph | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Harlan Strong (ARG) | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Hilliard Lyons Doubledogdare S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Not Now Carolyn | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Valadorna | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jenda’s Agenda | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Tapa Tapa Tapa | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Well Humored | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mines and Magic | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Julerette | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Promise of Spring | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Someday Soon | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Girl Talk | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Apologynotaccepted | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Song of Spring | 12.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ministry | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Flawsome | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Maybe Wicked | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | City Day | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lunar Garden | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Stave | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cloak of Secrecy | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | For Kicks | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brand New Game | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Luna Rosa | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Great Emmy M | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Roman Around | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tapit At Ann | 50.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.