April 20, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ribbonite | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ouro Verde | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mahabodhi Tree | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sand City | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Caoimhe | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dream Fever | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Our Whim | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Anna Rae | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tiz a Kitten | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Edisto Island | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Talkn Til Midnight | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ultimate Cause | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Savannah Belle | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Queenofthechannel | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Peaches and Spice | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Crimson King | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Weather Wiz | 0.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Proven Reserves | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ballard High | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pawn It Back | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ed’s Quick Cat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Susans Funnybone | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | O Shea Can U See | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Masta Ace | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Croatia | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Leading Storm | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Anything Pazible | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Barefoot Angel | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Merger of Banks | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cent of a Giant | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Giant Rubies | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Theresa’s Boy | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Huntsman | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Casa Rae | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Analyze the Odds | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Morning Breez | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Presence of Mind | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | What a Catch | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Pete | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Comeoncomeoncat | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Texican | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Cumulative | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sentry | 1.40 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mysterio | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Troopingthecolor | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dial Josh | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Arch Contender | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Last Chant | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Scrutinize | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dublin Leprechaun | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sidewinder | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Can You Diggit | 1.20 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Charming Indy | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zabaione | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Holy Week | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chilly Bon Bon | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Calculated Risker | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Papa Shot | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Timeline | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sunny Ridge | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Flash Trading | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pioneer Spirit | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Splashtastic | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bonus Points | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | The Chamo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Codylicious | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Financial System | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Curlin’s New Moon | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Victor Lounge (IRE) | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bourbon Boy | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Champagne Papi | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | A Lotta Wine | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Inevitable | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Corinthian Spirit | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Huracan | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stag of Sylvia | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.