April 15, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Truly a Moon Shot | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Conquest Prankster | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Asphalt Paving | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lightning Buzz | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hamptons Holiday | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Daring Destiny | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | St. Patrick Frost | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hexameter | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pray for Bourbon | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Strawberry Tequila | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Leah’s Dream | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | For Honor | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blank Paige | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hawkish | 1.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | War Chest | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gleason | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Factor This | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Morrison | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Manchester City (GER) | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ride to the Sunset | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Changewilldoyagood | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Calculated Risker | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Holy Week | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dublinthepleasure | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Global Positioning | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 2 | Mascarello | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Wicked Freud | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Fox Rules | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Tiz a Chance | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Cloud Control | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Haul Anchor | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hatteras Bound | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Micozzi | 0.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Full of Mine | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kenyan | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | One More Round | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Caniform | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Z J Wins | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | New Pass | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Walk of Fame | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Zecha | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Rosey Gal | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 6 | Elegant Jem | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Starlite Mission | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cumbria | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Quietly Quick | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Nazay | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Lady Rozina | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Spiral Bound | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Mrs. Orb | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Mizdirection S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Wegetsdamunnys | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Nootka Sound | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Elevated Vision | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Out of The Flames (GB) | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | March X Press | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Raucous | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Golden Days | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | She’s All Skeet | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Gibby | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Jehozacat | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Africa (FR) | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mentality | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | I Still Miss You | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Top Flight Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Verve’s Tale | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blue Prize (ARG) | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Crimson Frost | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Inclusive | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Frost Wise | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Just Got Out | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Anne’s Song | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Silveratta Road | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Grand Banks | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Myhartblongstodady | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Peril | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dr. Melfi | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | A Song for Sue | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Out of Orbit | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Union Patriot | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sardonyx | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Princess Maeve | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon High | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.