April 11, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Shadow Sphinx | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | His Royal Majesty | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trading Cash | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lookin At Blessing | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maximus Dan | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Foolish Beau | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Paddock Crasher | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 13 | Real Talk Ty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2B | 14 | Dixie Highway | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 12 | Odie | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Inda Zone | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hargus | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Tiz Nijinsky | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3C | 11 | War Ballad | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 9 | Best You Ever Seen | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Medalla de Honor | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 7 | Blazin Liason | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | My Perfect Graydar | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Land Broker | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Devilish Charm | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Two Bit Kid | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Calm Pacific | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | All Out of Aces | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pat’s Shoes | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bagpipes | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Woodmans Luck | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Orpheus (ARG) | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jingle Me This | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eden Ridge | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Cash Register | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Get Explicit | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Nymue’s Treasure | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Queen’s Fate | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Ultima D | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cool Beans | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Lalibela | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Toinette | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Subtle Step | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Deadline | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Lesley May | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Saucy Dame | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Over Thinking | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | La Signare (FR) | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Punked (IRE) | 5.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hey Negrita | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Top Me Off | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Ride On Faith | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Out of Hydeing | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Vandelay | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Start With Yes | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spanned | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Shiitake | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lucky Britches | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Boru | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | American Greatness | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | McMischief | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Song of the Nile | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Galilea | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Miss O’Hara | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 12 | Lucky Long | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Esquisse (GB) | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Havana Dream | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dolce Lili | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Pop By | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Last Promise Kept | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Thora Barber (GB) | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dawn the Destroyer | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Valentine Rosie | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Inchargeofme (GB) | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | You Cheated | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ethyl Ether | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Arabella Bella | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mrs Rocco | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | D’ Cat | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tied Up | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Getupbabygetup | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pure Praise | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shape of You | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Medlin | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Magical Sky | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Shakti | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Schema | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | La Sola Ranger | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | La Sardane (FR) | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mythical Mission | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brooks House | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ladies’ Privilege | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Valentine Wish | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Danceland | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Purely a Dream | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pour Girl | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Samuna (FR) | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lola’s the One | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.