April 11, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Our American Star | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Buster Brown Boy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Carthon | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pirate’s Treasure | 1.40 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Full of Hope | 1.20 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dublin Leprechaun | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Roller Rolls On | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Afleet Martini | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Casigordo | 1.20 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | No Hiding Place | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | The Great Samurai | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dr Luber’s Kiss | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Caniform | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chosen One Elijah | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 6 | Rectify | 1.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Killybegs Captain | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Forge | 1.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jewel Can Disco | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lunar Beauty | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gorgeous Charli | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8A | 8 | Benevolence | 1.20 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Benefactor | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Town | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fleet Irish | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Hembree | 1.20 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fillet of Sole | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Special Story | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | E J’s Legacy | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | My Bronx Tail | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Hurricane Sheila | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Peace Opportunity | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Currency Chaos | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 6 | Misericordia (GB) | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | No Deal | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Honored Promise | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Tapin Through Life | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Tanzania Road | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | We Are Family | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ragtime Suzy | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Paddydunalot | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Charlonique | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Say Cin Cin | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Talkn Til Midnight | 1.20 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Regal Dame | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Summer Punch | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Questeq | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Giant Ending | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hug the Rail | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Miss Jen | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Emiliana’s Hope | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Ready to Escape | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | A True Giant | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Surface Strike | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | There Goes Jose | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Charlie McCoy | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ferrad’s Party | 4.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Everyonelovesjames | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nolineonthehorizon | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Uncle Sigh | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Atlantic Sun (GB) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Preservationist | 0.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 6 | Funtastic | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Voodoo Song | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ticonderoga | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cerise’s Prince | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Monster Bea | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | War Bond | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Forres Lily | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Satin Sheets | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Curiousncuriouser | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Tiz Super | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Asian’s Way | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Iwishirish | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Rullah | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | This Bird Can Sing | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Over My Head | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.