April 7, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | En Hanse | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mutation | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Louisiana Brown | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cashel Rock | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Freud | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pulling G’s | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bodega Bay | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Tweeting | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wholehearted | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Soulshine | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Portrait of Emma | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Need the Wall | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shezappealing | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Electric Forest | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | East Moon | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fairly Honest | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rizzoli | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cheeky Cherub | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Killag Katie | 5.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fashionablyawesome | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Divine Symphony | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Angel Heritage | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gotalot | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mimi’s Ruby Bobby | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Elusive Mischief | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Smart Remark | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Crosswalk | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Up the Ante | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Global Citizen | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Honorable Treasure | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bobby’s Wicked One | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Prolific | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Time On Target | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin to Strike | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Private Eye | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Lovin Empire (JPN) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Galileo Gal (IRE) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Evasive Storm | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | In a Flury | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | So Charming | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Phantom Opening | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 5 | Coco Channel | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Church Social | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Auntie’s the One | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | No Fault | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Runninwiththewind | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Altered Mind | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Commonwealth S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Shut the Box | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Limousine Liberal | 1.20 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Conquest Windycity | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | First Premio | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Westwood | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Awesome Saturday | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Behavioral Bias | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Crewman | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Warrior’s Club | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heartwood | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Shakertown S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Flashaway | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Frisky Magician | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Commend | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Recruiting Ready | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 11 | Disco Partner | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Big Handsome | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Commute | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bound for Nowhere | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Latent Revenge | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Loose On the Town | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bucchero | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Tombelaine | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Will Call | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | Mooose | 50.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kid Perfect | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Zapperini | 50.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Madison S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sailor’s Valentine | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Berned | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mines and Magic | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Finley’sluckycharm | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | American Gal | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Ami’s Mesa | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Miss Sunset | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lewis Bay | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Salty | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Natural Wonder | 50.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ms Locust Point | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tequilita | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Teresa Z | 50.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Central Bank Ashland S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Eskimo Kisses | 2.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Monomoy Girl | 0.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Andina Del Sur | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tyfosha | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | C. S. Incharge | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ipanema Beach | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Patrona Margarita | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Toyota Blue Grass S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Quip | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Good Magic | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Free Drop Billy | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Flameaway | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sporting Chance | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kanthaka | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Machismo | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 15 | 14 | Determinant | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Arawak | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Marconi | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blended Citizen | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Gotta Go | 30.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tiz Mischief | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | California Night | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zing Zang | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Special Forces | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | First Spring | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bail Out | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Non Regrette | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Vegas Kitten | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Preacher Power | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Snap Hook | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Parrkaveli | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Menacing | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Chateau | 50.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kilronan | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bold Friends | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Course Correction | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bartolome Murillo | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Courage and Honor | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | El Capa Rojo | 50.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.