3/31 Recap: My Saturday started off well with a Liverpool victory, thanks mostly to Christian Benteke not being able to hit the broad side of a barn. But then my picks began and everything fell apart. Sevilla cruised through 88 minutes against Barcelona, holding a 2-0 advantage. Then they went full-PSG and gave up two goals in less than two minutes to end up with a draw. The thing is I had Barca -0.5 and put probably my largest wager to date on it. So that stunk. But then Juventus decided to play an open game for once in their life against AC Milan. At least Leonardo Bonucci got an emotional goal in his return to make the loss a little bit palatable.
3/31 Results:
My Picks: Barcelona 2 Sevilla 0 (Barcelona -0.5 goals [-145])
Juventus 1 AC Milan 0 (Under 2 total goals [+120])
Actual Results: Barcelona 2 Sevilla 2
Juventus 3 AC Milan 1
I don’t need April Fool’s Day to feel like a fool. Hopefully, today’s pair of picks makes the day of fools the one time I am not one.
SPANISH PRIMERA DIVISION
Deportivo La Coruna @ Atletico Madrid (2:45 PM ET/beIN Sports USA, beIN Sports en Español, fuboTV, iGol)
When first place lets you down, immediately pick a match with the team in second place, right? That is my task today in La Liga as Atletico Madrid hosts Deportivo La Coruna.
Even with yesterday’s draw, it is going to take a miracle for Atletico to catch Barcelona in the table. It is weird to say that three losses could damn one’s season, but in Barcelona’s form that is exactly the case. But like Barca, Atletico still has a European competition to attend to. The Europa League starts back up on Thursday and Atleti are in the quarterfinals against Sporting Lisbon. They will surely qualify through the league for next season, but with the way they meekly exited that competition this year, some silverware would dissipate some of that shame.
On the flip side, Deportivo is preparing for life in the Segunda Division next season. Eight points from safety, Depor haven’t won since Clarence Seedorf took over in February. With today’s match, Sevilla, Barcelona, and Valencia still on the schedule, they are all but doomed.
So seeing a one and a half goal spread (per Bovada) makes sense. But do I trust Atletico enough to get more than one goal? They are notorious for shutting it down, especially if they don’t score really early. I don’t see Deportivo scoring in this one, and while I am wary, I’ll take the home side to just barely cover.
PREDICTION: Atletico Madrid 2 Deportivo La Coruna 0 (Atletico -1.5 goals [EVEN])
FRENCH LIGUE 1
Toulouse @ Olympique Lyonnais (3:00 PM ET/beIN Sports Connect, fuboTV, iGol)
While the teams in my Spain pick have their futures fairly sorted, the same cannot be said in France. Lyon is scrapping for the final Champions League spot in France. Toulouse is hoping they don’t end up in Ligue 2.
If you want to say anything about Toulouse, they enjoy a good pattern. Four of their past five games have ended in a draw. The scores have run the gamut, 0-0 (against Amiens), 1-1 (against Metz), 2-2 (against Strasbourg), and 3-3 (against Monaco). So I should throw some money on 4-4 today?
Earlier in the season, I may have thought it possible when OL was scoring goals for fun, but until their last match with Marseille, they had trouble converting chances. I’d like to think the Marseille game is the start of a return to form, but usually, thoughts like this get me burned here on Picks From Across The Pond.
So I see two teams who draw quite a bit with a goal and a half spread. That’s odd in its own right, but even more so with the fact that Lyon is a better road team than a home one. Toulouse won’t win, but I think they can keep it low scoring enough that they don’t get blown out.
PREDICTION: Lyon 2 Toulouse 1 (Toulouse +1.5 goals [-145])
If you have any games you’d like me to pick over the coming week you can contact me on Twitter @TREVORutley. In addition to the available media listed for each game, be sure to try out our Gameview service while watching as well. Also, here is a link for my results throughout and the points system. Cheers!