3/30 Recap: Good Friday did not live up to the adjective here on Picks From Across The Pond. Derby County continued their miserable run of form, laying an absolute egg at home against bottom club Sunderland. They were fairly unlucky with a deflection for the Black Cats’ first goal, but they crossed their own path on the next three. A horrible touch sent Ashley Fletcher through. A dumb penalty concession all but sealed their fate five minutes after halftime. John O’Shea salted it away further 26 minutes later. At least Standard Liege had the common decency not to lose. I had no chance of a second goal coming in that match to at least push my over 2 goal prop, but I’ll save my complaints. So while Liverpool gets ready to raise my blood pressure, there are a couple of huge matches in Spain and Italy.
3/30 Results:
My Picks: Standard Liege 2 Sporting Charleroi 1 (Over 2 total goals [-160])
Derby County 2 Sunderland 0 (Derby MONEYLINE [-185])
Actual Results: Standard Liege 1 Sporting Charleroi 0
Sunderland 4 Derby County 1
There is a tremendous slate of games today, including Der Klassiker in Germany and the Coupe de la Ligue final in France, but I will start my picks off in Spain with two UCL quarterfinalists clashing.
SPANISH PRIMERA DIVISION
FC Barcelona @ Sevilla (2:45 PM ET/beIN Sports USA, beIN Sports en Español , fuboTV, iGol)
Barcelona has their eyes on the Champions League now, with La Liga fairly certain to be theirs. Fellow quarterfinalist Sevilla does not have the same luxury as their tenuous grasp on a European place in Spain is close to being released entirely.
Barcelona’s attempt to be Spain’s version of the Invincibles this season has been incredible. They’ve conceded a league-low 13 times this season and scored a league-high 74 times. Manager Ernesto Valverde has done wonders in his first season in charge, morphing the Catalan giants’ playing style without completely discarding their identity.
Barcelona could ostensibly extend Lionel Messi’s time on the sidelines in this one. Messi sat for both of Argentina’s friendlies during the international break. But even with Roma in the UCL next week, I can’t see Messi allowing it if he’s close to full fitness. I expect some semblance of squad rotation though.
Sevilla hasn’t had the greatest of years by their recent standards, but they could punt this game with what they have ahead of them next week. Bayern Munich looms in the Champions League next Tuesday at home. With the top four out of reach, and possibly having to qualify for Europa League, putting all their eggs in the UCL basket may be the way to go.
With what I “know” going into this game, I am loving such a low spread (per Bovada) in Barcelona’s favor. The game could very well end in a draw at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, but I like Barcelona to take all three points with Sevilla looking forward understandably.
PREDICTION: Barcelona 2 Sevilla 0 (Barcelona -0.5 goals [-145])
ITALIAN SERIE A
AC Milan @ Juventus (2:45 PM ET/beIN Sports Connect, Rai Italia America, fuboTV, iGol)
https://youtu.be/o58ZMEjqdwU?t=6m30s
Speaking of UCL quarterfinalists, Juventus finish off today’s Serie A action in a huge match against AC Milan.
Unlike Barcelona, Juventus cannot afford to look past any fixture in the league with Napoli just two points behind. A rematch of last year’s UCL final against Real Madrid is on the cards for the next two weeks. Their domestic form can’t suffer because of it.
Juventus will surely go ultra-defensive in this one to counteract a Milan side that only has a Europa League exit as a 2018 blemish. But if we’ve learned anything about the Old Lady during their run of dominance in Serie A this decade, it is that they are tremendous at being a cooler. Like a dealer change at a blackjack table, Juventus will adapt to Gennaro Gattuso’s style of play masterfully. And this is why I think Milan are in trouble this afternoon.
No team has tried to absorb the pressure that Milan plays with in Serie A since their managerial switch. Teams have tried to clog the midfield or play five at the back to slow them down. Juventus can do both because they have Gonzalo Higuain who can sit up top by himself if the situation calls for it.
However, with all this being said I was cautious about including this game in my picks. The solid goal spread is a no go for a game that I think may have just one goal in it. So I’ll take the under 2 goals (per Bovada) prop and hope that Juventus is on the same wavelength as me.
PREDICTION: Juventus 1 AC Milan 0 (Under 2 total goals [+120])
If you have any games you’d like me to pick over the weekend you can contact me on Twitter @TREVORutley. In addition to the available media listed for each game, be sure to try out our Gameview service while watching as well. Also, here is a link for my results throughout and the points system. Cheers!