3/29 Recap: Yeah, I’m done with Portugal for the time being. I thought seeing last place topple first place was bad. But yesterday I saw five goals come when I picked a scoreless draw. After Aves scored on the stroke of halftime, I thought I could at least salvage a draw result. Vitoria Setubal had a couple good chances and I could see them nicking a goal. Instead, Edinho scored four f’n times in the second half and spread hot doo doo butter all over my selection. At least I had old reliable League One to fall back on. Blackburn Rovers didn’t even let in the token goal I expected and bossed Bradford City. Needless to say, I am excited that the fixture list exponentially grows today. I have to wait one more day for the big league picks, but at least I can avoid Portugal.
3/29 Results:
My Picks: Blackburn Rovers 2 Bradford City 1 (Blackburn scores first [-235])
Vitoria Setubal 0 Desportivo Aves 0 (No Goal [+750])
Actual Results: Blackburn Rovers 2 Bradford City 0
Vitoria Setubal 4 Desportivo Aves 1
I’ll get a full slate of top-flight football tomorrow, but today’s picks take me to Belgium for the first time as well as one of my favorite competitions, the English Championship.
BELGIAN FIRST DIVISION A
Sporting Charleroi @ Standard Liege (2:30 PM ET/Not Aired In The US (World Listings HERE))
The first of my picks today takes us to one of the most intriguing leagues in Europe. The vast majority of European leagues employ their own championship model. The regular season determines the champion with various accompanying cup competitions providing additional opportunities at silverware. Belgium, however, uses a more American championship model, but with a twist.
Belgium’s regular season matters. Not for seeding, but for how many points you take into the championship playoffs. The top six teams have their point totals cut in half (and rounded up) and then undertake a 10 game quest to crown a champion. The past two years have seen the regular season champion hold on for the playoffs title, but it isn’t unprecedented to see them get pipped late on. Gent did just that in 2014-15 besting Club Brugge.
Brugge heads into the playoffs again as leaders and will need a massive collapse to lose it to either team playing today- Standard Liege or Sporting Charleroi. Sporting is the better of the two sides this season, but their title drought is much longer. The Zebras have been waiting since 1968-69 to hoist the trophy. Standard is an insurmountable 14 points behind entering the Belgian postseason, but at least they won it all in 2008-09 and won this year’s Belgian Cup.
So after all that background, I don’t know which way to go. Standard is the favorite (per Bovada) at home and is the more in-form team. But since I can’t decide (even though I’ll pick Standard), I’ll bet the over since both teams need to go for it to have any chance of catching Club Brugge.
PREDICTION: Standard Liege 2 Sporting Charleroi 1 (Over 2 total goals [-160])
ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunderland @ Derby County (2:45 PM ET/ESPN3 USA, WatchESPN)
While the Belgian playoff is the more intriguing of my picks, in my eyes, don’t sleep on this one in England. There are some crazy storylines in the background of Derby versus Sunderland.
They aren’t quite like Belgium’s, but as you should know the English Championship has playoffs of their own. The promotion playoffs are some of the tensest games in England’s footballing calendar. However, Derby’s recent run of form may find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture.
Five draws and two losses have led to a three-spot plummet in the table leaving Derby on the very edge of the playoffs with eight games remaining. Their inability to hold leads has been troublesome. Three of their five draws saw the Rams hold an advantage in the final half an hour. Luckily for Derby, Sunderland may just be the tonic that cures their ills.
Because while Derby, who is also dealing with a strange lawsuit against their former CEO, is in a bad way, it isn’t nearly as bad as it is Tyneside. Sunderland, perennial relegation escape artists, may be victims of the double drop. They were relegated from the Premier League last year and are last in the Championship table this season. The double drop is usually staggered, but Wolves did it from 2011-2013 going from the Premier League to League One. Sunderland hasn’t won a game since beating Hull over two months ago.
But while all signs point to a Derby drubbing, I see my old nemesis again, the solid goal spread. So instead I’ll go with the money line on this one, despite it being a bit higher than I’d like given Derby’s past month or so.
PREDICTION: Derby County 2 Sunderland 0 (Derby MONEYLINE [-185])
If you have any games you’d like me to pick over the weekend you can contact me on Twitter @TREVORutley. In addition to the available media listed for each game, be sure to try out our Gameview service while watching as well. Also, here is a link for my results throughout and the points system. Cheers!