3/28 Recap- With what I had at my disposal yesterday, I feel I did OK. Two early goals resided me to different fates in each game. In Scotland, St. Johnstone went ahead in the fifth minute and shut it down. Hamilton never stood a chance and my bet hit. In Italy, Bari went down even earlier on a third-minute worm burner from Daniele Buzzegoli. I stated in my picks that Bari was adept at killing leads and referenced the number of 1-0 games they have played. At least in this 1-0 loss, Fabio Grosso’s men didn’t make me wait until the final moments of the contest to lose. Today sees another shallow, yet growing, list of fixtures to pick from. While I really want to give Serie B one more go, I’ll instead head to Portugal looking for a turnaround from past picks and England where I’ve been my best.
3/28 Results:
My Picks: Bari 1 Ascoli 0 (Bari PICK [-155])
St. Johnstone 2 Hamilton Academical 0 (St. Johnstone -0.5 goals [-125])
Actual Results: Ascoli 1 Bari 0
St. Johnstone 1 Hamilton Academical 0
I’ll delay my return to Portugal, the site of my greatest failure to date in Picks From Across the Pond, and first head off to England, the site of my most recent “successes.”
ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE
Bradford City @ Blackburn Rovers (2:45 PM ET/ESPN3 USA, WatchESPN)
Before Leicester City’s improbable run to the Premier League crown, Blackburn Rovers were the lone outlier in the Premier League champions history books. The list was littered with the big four of Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United, and Manchester City. But sitting there nice and composed at 1994-1995 was Kenny Dalglish’s Blackburn Rovers. That season saw the legendary Alan Shearer score his way to a second of three straight Golden Boots and Blackburn winning the title on the final day.
Things haven’t been pretty since. They were relegated from the Premier League in 2011-12. After a few non-descript seasons in the Championship, they suffered relegation to League One last year. But they have been viable promotion candidates bouncing all over the top two or three all season.
Today’s match against Bradford gives me a bit of heartburn though. It really shouldn’t as I’ve already picked correctly against Bradford, but as I’ve always said, solid spreads give me cause for pause. Well, maybe I haven’t said it exactly like that but you get the picture.
So with that being said, I’m going to go with Blackburn Rovers to score first and win outright, but avoid the one goal spread (per Bovada).
PREDICTION: Blackburn Rovers 2 Bradford City 1 (Blackburn scores first [-235])
PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA
Vitoria Setubal @ Desportivo Aves (3:00 PM ET/Not Aired In The US (World Listings HERE))
My last pick from a league game in Portugal was embarrassing. I had to turn off the gamecast and hang my head in shame as leaders Porto fell to bottom Pacos de Ferreira. And to be honest, it wasn’t even as close a game as the 1-0 scoreline suggested. The worst team in Portugal dominated the best. So to avoid this calamity again, I’m going to attack a match today featuring TWO teams battling relegation instead of just one. Yeah, that should do the trick. (Huddles in the corner trying to fight off jinx)
As you’d expect from two teams at the bottom of any table, the form charts for both sides are all over the place. Neither side has been able to string together a run of results to distance themselves from the drop. Instead, they’ve both played like teams I would support. They play up to the best and get battered by their peers.
The two teams have identical 6-7-14 records, but Desportivo has the edge in goal difference by 8. I’m really trying to talk myself out of a draw with this one since I’ve only had one draw hit in the past week. But there is nothing to sway me otherwise since both teams just simply cannot afford to lose. This may be one of the uglier games I pick in this series. If Bovada provided a yellow card prop for this one, I’d probably take the over.
Instead, I’ll be picking my first goalless draw of the series. And I’ll throw a couple shekels on the No Goal prop for posterity.
PREDICTION: Vitoria Setubal 0 Desportivo Aves 0 (No Goal [+750])
If you have any games you’d like me to pick over the week you can contact me on Twitter @TREVORutley. In addition to the available media listed for each game, be sure to try out our Gameview service while watching as well. Also, here is a link for my results throughout and the points system. Cheers!