3/27 Recap: So yesterday’s international friendlies, even the ones not part of my picks, did their job. They were entertaining and engaging and best of all nobody got hurt. Well, at least physically anyway. I completely misread Spain versus Argentina. La Furia Roja killed my under in under a half an hour and then went on to put a six spot up on the Albiceleste. Lionel Messi couldn’t even stand to wait until the final whistle. At least I picked Spain to win.
But the game I whiffed on entirely was Brazil and Germany. It was a cautious match for both nations, with neither willing to give much ground. But I thought Gabriel Jesus’ goal just before half-time would lead to an open second half. I was wrong and Jesus himself had the best chance of scoring a second. But now friendlies are finished, and we got slim pickings today.
3/27 Results:
My Picks: Brazil 1 Germany 1 (DRAW +235, 1-1 DRAW +500)
Spain 1 Argentina 0 (Under 1.5 total goals [+230])
Actual Results: Brazil 1 Germany 0
Spain 6 Argentina 1
Since nobody got to me with requests for picks of the Romanian second division or 3.Bundesliga, let’s take our first trip to Scotland and hopefully another fruitful trip through Serie B in Italy.
ITALIAN SERIE B
Bari 1908 @ Ascoli Calcio (2:30 PM ET/Not Aired In The US (World Listings HERE)
I don’t think I’ll ever get a complete grasp on how to bet on lower tier European football. There are so many trends that just befuddle me with great regularity. Take for instance today’s match between promotion challengers Bari and relegation bound Ascoli.
At any tier of spread or goal prop, there isn’t much in the way of deviation. You would think that these were two mid-table teams with similar styles of play. But that is where you would be incredibly wrong.
Bari is an incredibly astute defensive team that thrives in close matches. To say they sit on leads does a disservice to the notion of sitting. They take leads to the grave. They’ve had six games end 1-0 this season, and won five of them. They have a capable goal scorer in Cristian Galano, but after starting the season hot his form has fizzled. None of his 13 Serie B goals have come after Christmas.
In contrast, Ascoli attempt to counter their weak back line by clogging the midfield hoping to counter. It is woefully ineffective however and alas they are where they are on the table.
When the two sides met in Bari, it was a resounding 3-0 victory for the home side. I can’t expect a similarly lopsided result in this one given Bari’s recent troubles with goals, but I’m still leaning towards them getting a W on the road, even as a pick ’em (per Bovada).
PREDICTION: Bari 1 Ascoli 0 (Bari PICK -155)
SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP
Hamilton Academical @ St. Johnstone (2:45 PM ET/Not Televised)
Now, this is a first for me here on Picks From Across The Pond. A top-flight match will take place today in Scotland with zero television distribution anywhere in the world. Not even the UK will see eighth-placed St. Johnstone take on ninth-placed Hamilton Academical. But sadly, this isn’t that much of a shock in today’s footballing landscape when it comes to Scotland.
Everybody knows Celtic and Rangers, the eternal Glasgow rivals. Some may even be aware of Aberdeen, Sir Alex Ferguson’s charge before his time at Manchester United. Either way, the luster of Scottish football has significantly dwindled over time to the point where their champion no longer gets a direct qualification to the UEFA Champions League.
So most teams in the division come into the season knowing that they are playing for fourth place. It is a disheartening notion since professional footballers more often than not prefer to have that glimmer of hope of glory intact. Take the two sides in today’s match.
Since their promotion to the Premiership/SPFL in 2008-2009, St. Johnstone is one of few sides to crash the top three party. But they’ve finished no higher than fourth any other season. That is better than Hamilton Academical whose best finish is seventh in 2009-10 and 2014-15. They were relegated in 2010-11.
So who’s the better of the bad teams? My gut says to take the home side, even if they have to cover a half a goal spread (per Bovada). Kudos to anybody willing to brave the rainy weather today at McDiarmid Park, as that it is the only way you are going to see this one.
PREDICTION: St. Johnstone 2 Hamilton Academical 0 (St. Johnstone -0.5 goals [-125]
If you have any games you’d like me to pick over the week you can contact me on Twitter @TREVORutley. In addition to the available media listed for each game, be sure to try out our Gameview service while watching as well. Also, here is a link for my results throughout and the points system. Cheers!