3/23 Recap: Even if today’s picks go down like a number two, they’ll fit the theme. Because today’s theme is TWO in honor of me finally going a perfect two for two yesterday. Two correct scores. Two sets of props hit. I still can’t believe it. But I owe it all to one man- Cristiano Ronaldo. Sure, Argentina made easy work of Italy at the Etihad. I expected that. But what I didn’t foresee was Egypt being up 1-0 (although I would have guessed Salah provided the one) entering stoppage time. But then CR7 did what he does best. Two beautiful headers (even if the second had a VAR scare) provided me my banner day. So with nothing left to prove with friendlies, until I have no choice again, I’ll head back into second tiers (or a fourth tier with Two in its name).
3/23 Results:
My Picks: Portugal 2 Egypt 1 (Both teams score [+120], Over 2.5 total goals [+125])
Argentina 2 Italy 0 (Argentina -0.5 goals [EVEN])
Actual Results: Portugal 2 Egypt 1
Argentina 2 Italy 0
So I promise that while the theme is present, I will refrain from puns. Or I’ll at least try my damnedest.
ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO
Barnet @ Luton Town (1:15 PM ET/ESPN3 USA, WatchESPN)
Our first match of the day takes us to England’s fourth tier, a place that if I ever win the lottery would look to buy a team. It is a battle of promotion vs relegation, as has been the case several times here on PFATP, as Barnet travels to Luton Town.
The first time I ever heard of Barnet, it was when Dutch legend Edgar Davids made himself a player/manager with the club in 2012. It was strange to the guy I was seeing rubbing shoulders with the game’s greatest in Nike Football ads “slumming it” with a club like Barnet. But it was also another case of not counting out the craziness in football.
Nevertheless, Barnet is going to need a miracle to avoid a drop out of the Football League entirely. They are seven points adrift of safety with eight games remaining. Luckily for them, Luton Town is the toughest game of the lot. Barnet’s other seven matches are against clubs 11th or lower in the table.
For Luton, they are looking to put an end to a dull spell that has seen their chances of automatic promotion go from a certainty to a challenge down the stretch. Four draws and a loss in their last five matches have allowed Wycombe Wanderers and Notts County to inch within two and five points respectively. But my favorite thing about Luton is how ESPN, who will air the game today on their streaming services, are a bit confused about who is playing striker for the club. (Actual—ESPN)
As has been my M.O., I shy away from games with solid spreads (per Bovada), unless a team like PSG or Manchester City is involved. Luton isn’t either of those. So while I’ll take them to win, I’ll hedge my bets with an under rather than a spread bet. Ignore the immediate contradiction to that statement when I pick a score that would beat the spread.
PREDICTION: Luton Town 2 Barnet 0 (Under 2.5 total goals [+105])
SPANISH SEGUNDA DIVISION
Rayo Vallecano @ Sporting Gijon (3:45 PM ET/beIN Sports Connect, beIN Sports en Español, fuboTV, iGol)
Whilst in La Liga, Rayo Vallecano was by far the most fun team to watch. Yes, Barcelona and Real Madrid always put on spectacles. I would never turn down a chance to see my Spanish side Valencia on a screen. But when the chips were down and you wanted to see a game that could end up 6-5, flip it to Rayo Vallecano.
Not much has changed for Rayo in the Segunda Division. They’ve scored and conceded the most goals in the league’s top five. I am pulling for them to make it back to the prime time next season. And hopefully, such a move allows them to keep a hold of Real Madrid loanee Raul de Tomas. He is the second leading scorer in the Segunda and is out of his Real Madrid contract this summer.
But let’s not discount their opponent today, Sporting Gijon. Gijon hasn’t lost a match in a month (five wins and a draw). They are five points from automatic promotion and have a goal scorer in fine form as well. Michael Santos scored both in Gijon’s 2-0 win over second-placed Huesca last time out. Each one was brilliant in its own right. The first a near post header that was unstoppable broke the nil-nil deadlock. The second was an incredible individual effort in which he pickpocketed the defender then took it on his own to blast past the keeper.
So expect some goals in this one. I think the Both Teams Score prop is as much of a lock as they come in this one. The Over 2.5 goals (per Bovada) is as well. But since I’m feeling so good I’ll up the ante a bit. I’m also going to not only take Both Teams Score, but I’ll throw a flyer out on Both Teams Score in Both Halves and Over 3.5 total goals. Hopefully, my happiness didn’t make me go too far.
PREDICTION: Rayo Vallecano 3 Sporting Gijon 2 (Over 2.5 total goals [-110], Over 3.5 total goals [+225], Both Teams Score [-130], Both Teams Score In Both Halves [+1300])
If you have any games you’d like me to pick over the weekend you can contact me on Twitter @TREVORutley. In addition to the available media listed for each game, be sure to try out our Gameview service while watching as well. Also, here is a link for my results throughout and the points system. Cheers!