3/20 Recap: Just when you think you know all the answers, football changes the questions. I know reworked a Roddy Piper quote there, but it is fitting. I’ve upped my research working with these lower-tier matchups, and yet I still have days where I’m getting blanked. Neither League One match gave me a chance early on, with the favorites each stumbling out of the gate. Dueling red cards gave me hope in the Shrewsbury/Northampton match, but the Shrews, despite many an opportunity, couldn’t put a second past NTFC keeper Richard O’Donnell. That’s more than I could ask for from Rochdale who was soundly bested by Fleetwood, leaving them rotting in the relegation zone. But now the international friendlies are beginning, further waining down the choices. Do I take an international friendly or try another League One match? How about I split the difference? You’ll see below.
3/20 Results:
My Picks: Rochdale 2 Fleetwood Town 1 (Rochdale -0.5 goals [-115])
Shrewsbury Town 2 Northampton Town 0 (Shrewsbury -0.5 goals [EVEN], Shrewsbury scores in both halves [+290])
Actual Results: Fleetwood Town 2 Rochdale 0
Shrewsbury Town 1 Northampton Town 1
You should have known I wasn’t going to make you go further than this for an answer. With the lone European international being between Liechtenstein and Andorra, I’ll take the one League One and one League Two match available. Then I’m going to stare at the sky and hope today’s latest East Coast nor’easter doesn’t wipe out my power again.
ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE
Wigan Athletic @ Walsall (3:45 PM ET/EFL iFollow)
Wigan made it further than any other League One side in the FA Cup. They fell in the quarterfinals to Southampton, but took out Bournemouth, West Ham, and most notably Manchester City to reach that stage. Northern Ireland international Will Grigg continued to be on fire through it all, and that flame has continued to be stoked in League One. He has two goals and an assist in four games since his goal saw off City. But while the City goal will live on in history, his two goals against Walsall in October have meaning as well.
Grigg netted a brace against his former club (one of many) that day, his first multi-goal game in over a year. He’ll be looking for a repeat today as Wigan attempts to use their games in hand better than Rochdale did yesterday at the other end of the table. Wigan is five points off leaders Blackburn and four off second place Shrewsbury Town with three games in hand. They’ve yet to beat either side during the 2017-18 season, so they need to take out lesser competition.
And at the moment, Walsall is far lesser competition. Losers of four of their last five in the league Walsall hover just four points above the relegation zone. Their one win in that time saw them score more goals than in the four losses combined.
So I like Wigan to win this one, but with recent events, the solid one-goal spread (per Bovada) is a no-go. With Walsall losing, I expect them to get shut out.
PREDICTION: Wigan Athletic 1 Walsall 0 (Under 2.5 total goals [-140])
ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO
Wycombe Wanderers @ Crawley Town (3:45 PM ET/EFL iFollow)
In the first two tiers under the Premier League in England, the top two teams are granted automatic promotion at the end of the season. In League Two, however, the top three sides have immunity from the insanity of playoff football. That insanity is what Wycombe Wanderers are trying to distance themselves from today.
Wanderers are level on points with Notts County at the moment, only behind on goal difference. But, County has already played their Matchweek 38 fixture, allowing Wycombe an opportunity to overtake them. To do so they’ll have to beat Crawley Town, a club that embodies everything that is lower league football.
If you glance at Crawley Town’s season’s list, you see a team that has scratched its way up from the depths of non-League to the brink of the League One playoffs. They’ve since begun to trickle down back into the mid-table of League Two after staving off a second drop each of the past two years. They started off this year very poorly, but a mid-year run of 10 wins from 14 matches has secured their safety.
In Wycombe, the Wanderers trounced Crawley 4-0 with four second-half goals. Three of those came from Craig Mackail-Smith, who has eight goals on the season. But some of you know why I wanted to pick this game over any of the other options. I’ve truly buried the lead. One name sells this game and makes my pick clear: Adebayo Akinfenwa.
PREDICTION: Wycombe Wanderers 2 Crawley Town 0 (Wycombe -0.5 [+110])
If you have any games you’d like me to pick over the week you can contact me on Twitter @TREVORutley. In addition to the available media listed for each game, be sure to try out our Gameview service while watching as well. Also, here is a link for my results throughout and the points system. Cheers!