March 21, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Stolen Candy | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rollin Smoke | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Waiting On Thunder | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jacob of Tarville | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hotnthirsty | 2.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blushing Dreamer | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Unbridled Passion | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bad and Tough | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Over Yonder | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Say Charlie | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wildcat Friendship | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fancy This | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dancehall Jack | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Made to Fit | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Masterly | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | It’s Time to B | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | True Flat | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Wild Dancer | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | They Call Me Seb | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Solanair | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Blues Tour | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Divine Defined | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thank Ya Jesus | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Texas Sky | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Valid Objection | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Crenshaw | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Summer Bull | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Star Time | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Amavi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | And Yet Another | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 15 | Nunc Pro Tunc | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Domino Run | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Arctic Dynaflow | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pancho’s Lucky Boy | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Charlie Hoss | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | A Place Remembered | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Tune My Guitar | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Real Time | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zippy | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Power Strike | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Papa’s Boy | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brave Aaron | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Spiritualsensation | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Undercover Lover | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Picknngrinn | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Jersey Justice | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Drena’s Bullet | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Last Drop of Wine | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Spiritual Warfare | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Big Iron | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Throwacross | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Pea Shooter Pro | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Uncle Mo Money | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | West Village | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Pat’s Shoes | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Plug Catcher | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ghurair | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Private Party | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Cadet Captain | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Peej | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Triple Creek | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I’malreadythere | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boyfriend Brian (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Costa Mesa | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Thunderberg | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Four Leaf Chief | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Alpha Bravo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Hermano Pilon | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Diamond Delight | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Divine Holiday | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rock Shandy | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dattts Our Guy | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mr. Nine Five Four | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Pummy | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | M J All Day | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Carnoustie | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ten Glitters | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | War Stroll | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Belgian | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Get a Valentine | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Whiskey Bravo | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | The Gipper | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sonoma Crush | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Keep Talking | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Partly Mocha | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Floroplus | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Johnny Obvious | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | I Am Ready Again | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 11 | Conner Clark | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Lucky Inferno | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Personal Conflict | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 6 | Heza Bling Thing | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Hitter | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 7 | Big Em C | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1A | 10 | Seaside Sergeant | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Iron Grip | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Wirey Won | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Jennovodka | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.