February 22, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Star Gaze | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Esperanza Diamond | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mi Copa Rebosa | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flat Out Big Money | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bayou Lily | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jus Wow | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pay Me N Pennies | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lavoyageuse Time | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Very Elegant | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Custom for Corales | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Native Wahoo | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | She’s Got the Mojo | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Hot Cherry | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Dreamsicle | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Giant | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Meg and Clair | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Dollar Dancer | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lunaris | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She Loves Leather | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dixie Jewel | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Silver Oaks | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Wild for Cathrine | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Christine Sixteen | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Super Philly | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Reese’s Glory | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Harbor Jedi | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Kate N Abs Reward | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Castiel’s Angel | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Yankee Pride | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Havinfunyet | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trust in Diane | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tapnfire | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sage’s Epiphany | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Too Cool | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Negev | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Walking the Kitten | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Entebbe | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | I. Damiana | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | First Embrace | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lil Blinkey | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Mischievous Dancer | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Big Nono | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bammmeister | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hotnthirsty | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cumber | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Charlie de Hustle | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Rocks Cry Out | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Time to Change | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2B | 16 | Miracle Mountain | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 15 | Mucho Mas Grande | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Wildscore | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Blarney | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Serious Ink | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Great Kat | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Big E | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Going Rate | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 8 | Roar of the Lion | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Rollin Smoke | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Noisey Boy | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Aviator Parks | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Heza Tinker | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | French Command | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Eights Wild | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Mansoor | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Promise of Spring | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Misleading Lady | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flora Dora | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Gracer | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wicked Lick | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Purely a Dream | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Song of Spring | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Larkin | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 11 | Thirteen Songs | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 6 | Don’t Tell Brandi | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Wild About Star | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Golden Amber | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Delicate Lady | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | A Fashion Affair | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 4 | She’s Plain Jane | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Bella Belle | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 3 | Zipperini | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nutcracker Suite (IRE) | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Caroline Test | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Amazon Warrior | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 6 | Amazing Bella | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1A | 10 | Yella Wally Gator | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Pinky Promise | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Starfish Point | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 7 | Pay My Feed Bill | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 11 | Carlena | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 2 | French Roast | 4.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Top Ten | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Grand Fais Do Do | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Deez Jitterbug | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.