February 19, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Blank Paige | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Presumptuous | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bogulator | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Summer Punch | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Free Kitty | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Buy for Less | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bluegrass Prevails | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Afleet Martini | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bar None | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Roman Revival | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | No Hiding Place | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dr Luber’s Kiss | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Nonna’s Boy | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chilly Bon Bon | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cody’s Notes | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Open Bar | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Awesome Heart | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Snowfly | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Clever Soul | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Panic Attack | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Wushu Warrior | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Connolly’s Beads | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Real Dan | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Killala Bay | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Playboy Johnny | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Holycowits Patrick | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Macho Miah | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Midnight Mission | 1.20 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | The Caretaker | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Altesino | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Grassady | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Formal Start | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Karen’s Gem | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Dreams Are Free | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Giant Boxer | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Jump Ruler | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mo Shopping | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Solitary Gem | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gypsy Janie | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Blushing Justine | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rapid Route | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Old Upstart | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shalako | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wake Up in Malibu | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rockford | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Praetereo | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Battle Midway | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Conquest Bigluck E | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Hollie Hughes S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Candid Desire | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | My Boy Tate | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Celtic Chaos | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bass River Road | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Saratoga Giro | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gypsum Johnny | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Eye Luv Lulu | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Foreset | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tribecca | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.