February 16, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 9 | Reece’s Dilemma | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Twilight Star | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Nilla | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hannah Banana | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Desert Empress | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Muscadine Wine | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fuhr a Slam | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Floatie | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mylie Idel | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pummy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Bowknot Billy | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Il Est Vite | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cork Arm | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | War Letters | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Robert E. Lee | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Shaniko’s Secret | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sure Can Do | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cadillac Carter | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Reine des Animaux | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jus Kevin | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Eskenformore | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Temple Shadow | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pera | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Data Girl | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Forgotten | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Holiday Song | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Superstar Leo | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Infinite Mischief | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tarpys Zapper | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Charming Deputy | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mayor Mac | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Whyruawesome | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Cape Race | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Candy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | The Imposter | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Rock N Sake | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Uncle Mo Money | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Show Bound | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bushrod | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | M C Squared | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Brave Benny | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Fuhrious Warrior | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Reflector | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | What a Image | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Katiebmeister | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Savvy Shipman | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Guestar | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1A | 8 | Blue Suade Guitar | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Glorieta | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Miss Dun Done It | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Is Too | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Bernadettes Vision | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Seaside Amour | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Above Reproach | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Drop Dead Red | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Larkin | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Longwing Lily | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Dontmesswithjoanne | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Talkless Smilemore | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Havana Dream | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Savannah Belle | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | American Lynx | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Blasted Boss | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | No Cacha Na (CHI) | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Quality Production | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Spring Value | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sid Vicious | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | King Bandit | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Pal Torres | 5.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Run Away Ralph | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Skip the Pinot | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fire Blaster | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Day Drinker | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tammany Parkway | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 15 | Staytruetodagame | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Hard Headed Woman | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Proud Talike | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Heaven’s Creation | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Lucky Move | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sandstorm | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Shy | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Aikenetta | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Safari Kitten | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | D’ Platinum | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Miss Holiday (ARG) | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Deauville Mist | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Unfading Beauty | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Miss Bold Cat | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Sky Trail | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.