February 11, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Conquest Mystique | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Dorfman | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | No Richie | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gentle Commitment | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Solanair | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Waiting On Thunder | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Run From the Nun | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 8 | Alvear | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Plug Catcher | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 6 | Ghurair | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Whiskey Tree | 1.60 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Svindahl | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Firespike | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | I’malreadythere | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Candy Carlos | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Carnoustie | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tabaddol | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | El Tristan | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Lucky Inferno | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Conner Clark | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lookingforroses | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Iron Grip | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Miss You Jo | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Greeley’s Glacken | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aint There No More | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Countach | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Overruling | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 11 | Cowboy City | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Bam Bam Bryan | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | D’ Kingfish | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | It’s Mike’s Turn | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Mardi Gras Mask | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sir Advent | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Roger Brown | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | A Song for Arch | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Logan’s Reward | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 5 | Mizz Fabulous | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 2 | Ava Atticus | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Fashion’s Touch | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Special Relativity | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bella Moon | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rosebud’s Hope | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Cause | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Windy City Girl | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Divorce | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | La Flor | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Vernacular | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Caribbean Soul | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Bikini Hottie | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 7 | Ruthless Child | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Stumberg | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Splashing | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dot Notation | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Super’s X E | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | So Aristocratic | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | Selene’s Argument | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Devil’s Teeth | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Vicks First Pick | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | One Million | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 4 | Full Heart | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Samargo | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Boomer’s Boy | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Swamp Ruler | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Seven Heart | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Congratulate Me | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Watch My Smoke | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Well’s Gold | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Thunderberg | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Ninety One Assault | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ole Skip Rope | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Krafty Boy | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | In the Navy | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Quiet Concert | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Kid Creole | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Marco Mischief | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Who Datawaki | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Four Leaf Chief | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Social Cat | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Thirtysix G’s | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | From Now On | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Hermano T K | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Magic Maniac | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Horace Charles | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Charlie de Hustle | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | My First Guitar | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dickie Do Wrong | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lil Blinkey | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.