January 15, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Charming Deputy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Liberty Lane | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Kick | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cutacorner | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Draxhall Woods | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Modern Medicine | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6 | Guitar King | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Grand Luwegee | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nippy Red | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nothings Changed | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Rifle Man | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Charlie de Hustle | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1A | 4 | Perin the Pirate | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chesed | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bad and Tough | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Noisey Boy | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Heavenly Gem | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bowknot Billy | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Apollo’s Prince | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Quiet Prince | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spasini | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Summer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Reine des Animaux | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dontmesswithjoanne | 1.60 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Temple Shadow | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Royal Alexandra | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jus Kevin | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Believeinsomething | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Gator Tough | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Halifax | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Coffee Cup | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chuck’s Quest | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blushing Dreamer | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chesapeake City | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Teddy B | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Burando | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Sky Force | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Apreciado | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Wild Will | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Jericho | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Great Kat | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Desierto | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Kierland | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tapizone | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Big E | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Tornado Man | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heza Tinker | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Channel Won | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Niagara Storm | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Great Sky | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Kikinboy | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | R K Gee | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fearless Kitty | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Overanalyzfakenews | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bammmeister | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bye Bye Shanghai | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Chasing Moments | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Daddy Issues | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Will Ye Go Lassie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Big Blue Magic | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | Brenda’s Fever | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Last Play | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tofino | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lyrical Tale | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eye of the Kitten | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ruthless Child | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Caribbean Soul | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Holly Go Lightly | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Forever | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Red Tide | 50.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lightning Twice | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Kayne’spotofgold | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Watch My Smoke | 1.80 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Hula Pie | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Fist Full | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1A | 7 | Grace’s Bandit | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 6 | Beauty’s Pioneer | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 4 | War Threat | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Fiftyshadesofbay | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Bold Legion | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.